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Showing posts with label CMG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CMG. Show all posts

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Top Best Stock Retailers Exciting the best stock investors

.. Email 2 Print ... . . RELATED QUOTES. . Symbol Price Change BWLD 95.35 -2.11 CMG 361.64 +0.78 LULU 61.90 -0.80 TSCO 110.21 -2.33 ULTA 94.15 +0.75 . . .. . . They sell cropped workout pants and crop fertilizer; they serve up beer, burritos or blond highlights. These companies have little in common, really, except that they're America’s new favorite store chains, expanding quickly throughout the country, exciting shoppers when they arrive in their town and generating lush profits along the way. While delighting consumers with their take on the familiar presented in fresh, convenient ways, these retailers on a hot streak have also enriched their investors. Each of them is arguably in or near the sweet spot of their development. They’re large and mature enough to have perfected their store models, won widespread consumer recognition and reached sufficient scale for effective advertising strategies. They have expanded their locations by 40% to 90% since 2008, in most cases going from regional to national. Yet their brands, so far, haven’t turned tired or over-familiar, and by their own and analysts’ estimates they are not much more than halfway to their potential size. Wall Street’s push-pull Each of these burgeoning retailers qualifies, on Wall Street, as a trendy growth stock. They have a beautifully smooth and deftly executed expansion record, customers reliably flock to make each newly christened shop or restaurant a near-instant money maker, and their stocks are therefore expensive - and magnets for contrarian skepticism. Each company is valued at or well more than 20-times their expected 2013 profits, in a market that’s paying on average about 15-times company earnings. This means investors are collectively giving the chains a lot of credit upfront for a successful continuance of their fast growth in coming years. Owned as a group, these stocks will probably outperform the broad market in a decent economy for a while to come - but likely because one or two grow to dominate while others plateau or falter. At some point, every retail chain hits a wall, growing so large it begins cannibalizing its own sales or losing the favor of a fickle and easily distracted customer. This is why four of the companies on this list have an unusually large percentage of its shares sold “short” by investors betting they will lose value. Short interest in the four bear-targeted names ranges from four- to eight-times as high as the broad market. Expensive, faddish companies always attract naysayers, who are often wrong for quite some time until they’re resoundingly right. Click through to see, in alphabetical order, the country’s new favorite hyper-growth consumer companies. Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) Grand opening of Buffalo Wild Wings (Photo by Tony Tribble/AP Images) This chain of sports-bar-themed restaurants hawking beer, hot wings and casual camaraderie has burst from 560 to 923 locations since 2008, driving revenue up 146% to $1.04 billion last year and sending per-share earnings to $3.06 in 2012 from $1.36 in 2008. Buffalo Wild Wings shares are up 277% in the past five years to a recent $97.46. The Minneapolis-rooted chain has adopted a marketing image as an essential place for friends to watch the big game, with TV commercials striking a tone of benign frat-boy team passion, allying themselves closely with major televised sporting events. The goal is to nearly double the store count to 1,700. A major risk to the firm’s profits from quarter to quarter is the volatile wholesale cost of chicken parts – a mark of the intensity of their customers’ wing-gnawing appetites. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) A Chipotle Mexican Grill in the west Denver suburb of Lakewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) Easily the most ubiquitous and broadly loved of the new consumer favorites, this 20-year-old quick-service pioneer of locally sourced and freshly prepared Mexican-inspired meals is almost a one-company movement. Founded haphazardly in Denver by a classically schooled chef and backed for a time by McDonald’s Inc. (MCD), Chipotle is a dining juggernaut with 1,410 shops in North America, up 68% in four years. The company is so coveted as an addition to local shopping centers and downtowns that it has pursued a strategy of opening multiple locations in a given market as a way of provoking consumer awareness and cravings to accelerate sales. While it might be over-ambitious, the company figures it can double its store count, and is now rolling out an Asian-themed sub-chain. Chipotle has two million “likes” on Facebook, and its shares are up 300% in the past five years, to $366. Chipotle is nonetheless is closer to reaching the point when its hefty scale makes difficult the kind of rapid growth its shareholders are implicitly demanding. It remains to be seen how scalable Chipotle’s locally sourced, more-expensive food processes are. A great company, but at an eye-searing 34-times forecast 2013 profits, that’s a lot of beans to pay for a maturing purveyor of admittedly tasty burritos. Lululemon Atheltica Inc. (LULU) Pedestrians walk past a Lululemon Athletica store in New York, March 19, 2013. (REUTERS/Lucas Jackson) Lululemon is inarguably the retailer that enjoys the greatest customer passion per square foot of store space in North America. Begun in Vancouver, British Columbia, the company makes carefully crafted active wear such as yoga pants and halter tops that are beloved for their style, quality and performance. It has become a cliché that the duds are something of an everyday uniform for women in certain affluent areas. When the company famously recalled a series of black women’s yoga pants in March for being too sheer, the stock took a hit, but Lulu’s reputation for intense attention on quality and customer loyalty was enhanced. Under CEO Christine Day, who has said she will soon step down, Lulu has perfected a strategy to use planned scarcity to “train” customers to anticipate and pay hefty full prices for new designs. The stock is up 300% in five years, ad sales per square foot were an astonishing $2,058 last year, up more than 30% from 2008 levels. It has doubled its store count to 211 since 2008, a small footprint that leaves plenty of room for growth. As a benchmark, Canada Lulu has nearly four times as many stores per capita than it does in the U.S.; other major markets such as Australia, Hong Kong and Germany are being pursued aggressively. Tractor Supply Inc. (TSCO) Tractor Supply Company in Springboro, OH. (Ed! via Wikipedia) The marketing tag line for this Brentwood, Tenn., big-box chain of farm and yard necessities is “For Life Out Here.” In this case “out here” is America’s rural and exurban districts, where working farms and ranches abut hobbyist gardeners’ homes and weekenders’ retreats. The company has cleverly found an opening – many openings – in areas not dense enough for a Home Depot but with more local spending power and demand than an Agway or local hardware store can offer. There are close to 1,200 locations, concentrated in the Southeast but stretching nationwide, up from 855 in 2008. Revenues are up 55% in four years and per-share profits grew 160%. The stock is up an astonishing 660% in five years.
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. (ULTA) Ulta Beauty in Ann Arbor, MI. (Dwight Burdette via Wikipedia) Not as well known as the mall staple Sephora, Ulta has been aggressively spreading beauty across the country in recent years, with store locations growing 85% from 311 in 2008 to 576 now – on the way to a management-stated goal of 1,200. Selling makeup, skin and hair products and offering hair styling and other spa treatments in its salons, Bolingbrook, Ill.-based Ulta is largely taking business from local shops and department-store cosmetics counters. Earnings and revenue each have more than doubled in the past four years, and its avidly loved – and detested – shares are up more than 700% in five years to a recent $95. Ulta has a highly promotional management seeking growth at all costs, yet with unimpressive sales per store, modest profit margins and few inherent competitive advantages in its category. Its stated 1,200-store goal is contingent on many more malls being built. Sephora shops within JC Penney Co. (JCP) stores and Amazon.com's (AMZN) beauty category are re-launching. Beware the blemishes beneath what at first seems Alta's pretty image of health and growth

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Why you should Buy $CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill's (NYSE: CMG ) ?

This year marks Chipotle Mexican Grill's (NYSE: CMG ) 20th anniversary and with more than 1,400 restaurants serving almost 1 million customers daily, it's safe to say the concept has caught on. I love the fact that the company owns all its stores; it doesn't franchise any of them. What this means for investors is strategic growth based on management's goals. These stores are not only self-funding but also veritable cash machines with each ringing up more than $2 million in average annual sales, and when we consider that the average store yields an operating profit of around $570,000 per year (and growing), it's not hard to see why Chipotle makes for an attractive long-term holding. Initiatives like the ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen and the recently announced catering service offer up additional growth drivers beyond expanding the current store footprint (which I believe has room to at least double) meaning that today's price at around 30 times full-year estimates is a fair one to own shares in an excellent company. The biggest risk on the horizon for Chipotle is food costs. Management does possess some pricing power thanks to the quality of the food and experience, but they don't have a history of abusing it. Best of all, we know that with Chipotle and its streamlined store concept, for founder and co-CEO Steve Ells it always has been and always will be about the food. Ells has developed a platform with which he can deliver an excellent product. But for investors to look at Chipotle as "just a burrito joint" is extremely short-sighted. This story has a long way to go.

Monday, July 23, 2012

Why u should buy Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. ( CMG ) on the dip down ?

I'm along term player in CMG , anything under 300 a share i am buying .Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. and its subsidiaries (Chipotle) operate restaurants throughout the United States, as well as two restaurants in Toronto, Canada and two in London, England. As of December 31, 2011, Chipotle operated 1,230 restaurants, which includes one ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen. The Company’s restaurants serve a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. The Company manages its operations and restaurants based on six regions that all report into a single segment. As of December 31, 2011, the Company delivered ingredients and other supplies to its restaurants from 22 independently owned and operated regional distribution centers. Chipotle categorizes its restaurants as either end-caps (at the end of a line of retail outlets), in-lines (in a line of retail outlets), free-standing or other i will belooking for the dips down the next 6 - 8 months. CMG has a bright future and cult like guest will keep enjoying CMG food . CMG will need to watch the corn prices the next year or so ,food costs are rising, and fast. Chipotle has temporarily been able to stifle this macro economic set back by raising prices (throughout 2011, thus still showing an impact in 2012's YOY earnings).
In terms of full year inflation, while costs have been relatively stable overall so far this year, the recent extreme weather will likely put pressure on our food costs later in the year and into 2013.

Even Chipotle's management is starting to admit that rising food costs have the potential to be a real problem.However, because of lower same store sales, it's clear that Chipotle realizes it cannot continue to pass these commodity costs off to consumers for much longer.
By not continuing to raise prices in 2012 and try to hedge they food prices on the dips low. If u are looking for the long term this stock will explode to @ least 450 a share by 1 - 2 years from now 75% profit ! sounds yummy to me , buy , buy, buy !!!!
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. ( CMG ) has reported second-quarter 2012 earnings of $2.56 per share, comfortably ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.30 as well as the year-earlier earnings of $1.59. The better-than-expected results were driven by double-digit top-line growth and margin expansion.Chipotle was rolled over like one of its signature burritos after delivering a mixed quarterly report. Earnings and margins came in better than expected, but the quick-service eatery chain missed on the top line despite an enviable 8% spike in unit-level comps

Revenues rose 20.9% year over year to $690.9 million in the reported quarter, based on new restaurant openings and higher comparable store sales (comps). However, reported revenue fell below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $706 million.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
(NYSE:CMG)
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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

(Public, NYSE:CMG) Watch this stock
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Dow Jones12,674.35-1.16%
S&P 5001,343.41-1.41%
Services-1.35%
CMG311.33-1.78%
311.33
-5.65(-1.78%)
Real-time: 11:10AM EDT
NYSE real-time data -Disclaimer
Currency in USD
Range301.10 - 311.70
52 week271.53 - 442.40
Open308.11
Vol / Avg.880,676.00/947,978.00
Mkt cap14.90B
P/E37.48
Div/yield -
EPS8.23
Shares48.29M
Beta0.93
Inst. own64%

Quarter Highlights

Comps grew 8.0% during the quarter on the back of higher traffic and menu price increases witnessed last year. Higher menu prices added about 4.6% in the quarter under review. However, comps slipped 470 basis points (bps) sequentially and 200 bps annually.

The restaurant operating margin expanded 340 bps to 29.2%, attributable to a 100-bp cut in labor, 30-bp drop in occupancy costs and 130-bp decrease in other operating costs and 80-bp slip in food, beverage and packaging costs (as a percentage of total revenue).

Total operating margin expanded to 19.4% from 14.7% in the year-ago quarter, benefiting from lower expenses. General and administrative expenses were 6.1% of revenue, down 120 bps year over year, driven by favorable sales leverage, lower employee bonus accruals and lower legal expenses.

Stores Update

During the quarter under review, Chipotle opened 55 restaurants, including first restaurant opening in Paris, France. The company currently operates 1,316 outlets.

Chipotle has remained largely unruffled by the recent economic slowdown. The company remains on track to open 155-165 new restaurants in fiscal 2012.

Financial Position

Chipotle ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $404.8 million and shareholders' equity of $1,261.2 million as compared with $401.2 million and $1,044.0 million in 2011, respectively.

Guidance

For 2012, the management reaffirmed its outlook of mid single-digit comparable store sales growth.

Our Take

Though the top-line miss by the fast-food restaurant chain came as a disappointment for some investors, we believe Chipotle is well positioned to generate improved earnings, margins and returns on invested capital. With a strong debt-free balance sheet, healthy cash flow, excellent unit economics, strategic international expansion, the successful 'Food With Integrity' program and continued marketing initiatives, we believe that the stock provides relative safety and consistent growth.

Thoughts ???
by Read more: http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-07/chipotle-reports-mixed-2q-results-analyst-blog(2).aspx?storyid=157741#ixzz21STNddly

Monday, January 23, 2012

Big Returns In 2012? Go W/ Small Cap , Mid cap, Large Cap, or Penny Stocks ?

Small-caps have started to outperform large-caps, but they remain depressed from year-ago levels. We are still early in the economic recovery, which suggests smaller companies have room to run fundamentally. I have shared other reasons for my favorable outlook. If you agree, you might want to shift your exposure by focusing on smaller companies. Alternatively, you can use ETFs such as the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) or the iShares Russell Micro-Cap (IWC).

How valuable is Southern Company?

Thinking about the value of a company, I think about growth. What kind of opportunity does a company have for growth in the future? If we look at SO's price to sales ratio, it will give us a good barometric reading of its potential for growth. The lower the price/sales ratio, the healthier it is. Comparing SO to the electric industry, (2.87 to 41.11) we realize that this company is by far a huge leader in its industry and had very good growth potential for a long term investor.

Caribou Coffee Company Inc. (CBOU) is currently trading near $13 a share with a 52-week range of $8.50 to $17.40. It does not pay a dividend. Earnings per share is $1.66, and price to earnings ratio is 8.01. Market capitalization is $275.82 million. Management reported net sales of $80.3 million for the second quarter ended July 3. This is up 16.5 percent over last year’s second quarter net sales of $68.9 million. Cost of sales increased 24.1 percent, with second quarter 2011 costs of $37.9 million versus $30.5 million for the same quarter 2010. Management increased earnings expectations throughout the remainder of the year.

The coffee industry has been characterized by volatility, but recent reports indicate that world coffee demand outpaces supply, which bodes well for the immediate growth future of JVA. A seasonal spike in sales is expected over the holiday season. JVA is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range at a price that doesn’t frighten investors, but the range itself points to a great deal of price volatility. Though somewhat speculative, a purchase seems reasonable and can be averaged over time with additional purchases.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) – This operator of fresh, casual Mexican restaurants is currently trading near $315.48, which is toward the higher end of its 52-week range of $178.09 to $346.78. It does not pay a dividend. Earnings per share is $6.05, and price to earnings ratio is 52.15. Market capitalization is $9.89 billion.

Second quarter results announced in July were strong. Revenue increased 22.4 percent to $571.6 million. Net income rose to $50.7 million from $46.5 million for the same period last year. Costs were up 80 basis points over the same period last year, which management attributed to an increase in stock-based compensation and higher legal costs. The company opened 39 new restaurants and now boasts a total of 1,131. It opened 12 in the first quarter 2011 and 22 in the same quarter last year. Third quarter results are due out on Oct. 20.

Panera Bread Company (PNRA), another health-branded bakery/eatery, is currently trading near $111, which is in the middle of its 52-week range of $88.75 to $133.43. It does not pay a dividend. Earnings per share is $4.22, and price to earnings ratio is 26.43. Market capitalization is $3.33 billion. PNRA reported second quarter revenue of $451 million, which is up 19 percent over the same quarter last year. The company also showed improved operating margin of about 50 basis points over the same period last year. A total of 28 new bakery/cafes opened in the second quarter, which is up from 19 in the first quarter 2011 and 13 during the second quarter 2010. There are 1,493 total bakery-cafes in operation. Third quarter results will be released next week.

The CMG brand is fresh, healthy, sustainable and ethical. The food is good. The company is growing. The stock is high, though, and requires a significant outlay of cash to make a purchase. While I am taking a wait-and-see stance with CMG, I am looking forward to my next meal at Chipotle Mexican Grill and my next loaf of Panera bread.

Travelzoo Inc. (TZOO) – This online publisher of travel and entertainment deals through its network of websites is currently trading near $29, which is at the low end of its 52-week range of $20.68 to $103.80. It does not pay a dividend. It is showing a loss per share of $0.10. Market capitalization is $481.98 million. Second quarter results showed a 34 percent increase year-over-year in revenue or $37.6 million. Operating profit of $7.6 million was up 29 percent over the same period 2010. The company’s $4.9 million in net income was up 51 percent over the same period last year. Management said the second quarter 2011 produced the fastest growth rate in four years. Investments in television advertising, the addition of 27 new “Local Deals” markets and an increased its subscriber base point to continued growth.

Its larger competitor Expedia Inc. (EXPE) is currently trading near $28 and has ranged from $19.61 to $32.89 over the past year. Its dividend yield is 1 percent or $0.28. Earnings per share is $1.56, and price to earnings ratio is 18.02. Market capitalization is $7.7 billion. Second quarter earnings showed an increase in revenue of 23 percent to $1.02 billion, up from $834 million for the same quarter 2010. Cost of revenue also increased the second quarter by 18 percent. Adjusted net income increased by $26 million over the same period last year.

TZOO launched a new iPhone application in celebration of its fifth anniversary. In August, management announced the authorization of the repurchase of up to 500,000 shares.

I like where this stock has been. I like management’s focus on growth. Third quarter results are due out next week, and I expect to see continued growth. For investors who are willing to take a chance, a small purchase at today’s price could prove gainful in the medium to longer term, particularly for those who dollar-cost average. Should TZOO’s third quarter results fall short of expectations, an opportunity to buy more shares could arise.

priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN) – This online hotel airline reservation provider is currently trading near $491. Over the past 52 weeks it has ranged from $337.47 to $561.88. It does not pay a dividend. Earnings per share is $14.10, and price to earnings ratio is 34.83. Market capitalization is $24.45 billion. The company reported gross bookings or total sales of $5.8 billion for the second quarter. Revenues were $1.1 billion or 44 percent higher than the same period last year. Gross profit increased 68 percent to $749.2 million. Management expects total sales to increase by 47 to 52 percent, year over year, revenue to increase 37 to 42 percent, year over year, and gross profit to increase by 54 to 59 percent year over year in the coming quarter.

Orbits Worldwide, Inc. (OWW) is currently trading near $1.88. It has ranged between $1.57 and $7.01. It does not pay a dividend. It shows a loss per share of $0,62. Market capitalization is $194.3 million. Gross bookings totaled $3 million for the quarter ended June 30, which was down slightly from $3.1 billion for the same period last year. Net revenue increased four percent to $201.8 million, and cost of revenue increased four percent from $34 million to $35.5 million.

Reports are beginning to circulate that airfares may be higher throughout the holiday travel season, thanks to airlines reducing flights earlier this year. Analysts like this stock, with most recommendations ranging from “Strong Buy” to “Buy.” It is awfully high, though Again, because of its high price, investors who purchase now with an outlay of cash necessary to obtain a meaningful holding have a lot more to lose than those who invest in a lower priced stock.
If I want to know how much money is flowing through this company as compared to its price, I might look at its price to cash flow ratio. The closer the ratio gets to that magical "100" the less capability a company has. "100" means it can just pay its bills because the value of the company is equal to the amount of money coming in and no more. The industry stands at 19.10 while SO is less than half of that coming in at 8.80. We have an abundance of upside potential compared to the industry as a whole.

While the Electric Industry as a whole might be losing favor with analysts, we see Southern Company as a rock solid long term investment. Not only are they consistently bullish but they have a solid dividend program that continues to grow. This company should be in your portfolio if you are looking for long term growth investments or investing in a company for dividend income.

All figures are taken from: (MSN Money)

 Red Hat compared with a variety of competitors providing operating systems, middleware and/or virtualization solutions, along with two subscription-based, software-as-a-service vendors, Symantec and Ariba.


Red Hat Microsoft Oracle VMware Citrix Symantec Ariba
Ticker RHT MSFT ORCL VMW CTXS SYMC ARBA
Price (1/20/12) $46.32 $29.67 $28.60 $87.68 $67.95 $16.77 $29.13
Market Cap $8.95 b $248.7 b $143.7 b $37.1b $12.7 b $12.4 b $2.73b
LTM Revs $1.08 b $71.1 b $36.7 b $3.54 b $2.12 b $6.61 b $443.9 m
Op CF Margins 33.2% 38.4% 35.8% 52.8% 32.5% 29.7% 17.1%
MRQ Rev Growth 23.1% 7.3% 2.4% 31.9% 19.7% 13.6% 44.6%
Forward P:E 40.3 9.83 11.2 34.9 24.8 8.84 25.6
EV: Revs 7.63 2.72 3.47 9.47 5.75 1.81 5.69
Float: Shares Out 0.994 0.898 0.779 0.183 0.995 0.996 0.987
Source: Yahoo Finance LTM=Last 12 months, CF=Cash Flow, MRQ=Most Recent Quarter




We had two takeaways from this data:

  • Red Hat has the highest forward price:earnings ratio among this group, but it seems proportional to its growth rate. (Note that Ariba’s higher revenue growth rate includes an acquisition made in 2011);
  • VMware stands out for its very large cash flow margins and revenue growth. It also commands a premium multiple (though its P:E is not as high as Red Hat’s), probably owing to its 85% market share in virtualization


Company (Ticker) Lump-Sum Investment Lump-Sum Price (Shares) DCA Investment DCA Price (Shares)
American Electric Power (AEP) $6,000 $39.70 (151.1) $500 $39.70 (12.6)
HCP, Inc. (HCP) $6,000 $39.35 (152.5) $500 $39.35 (12.7)
Rogers Communications (RCI) $6,000 $36.91 (162.6) $500 $36.91 (13.5)
Verizon Communications (VZ) $6,000 $39.04 (153.7) $500 $39.04 (12.8)



Status, At The Close, January 19, 2012


Ticker Lump-Sum Investment Lump-Sum Current Shares/Price Lump-Sum % Change
AEP $6,000 151.1/$41.10 3.5%
HCP $6,000 152.5/$41.38 5.2%
RCI $6,000 162.6/$38.88 5.3%
VZ $6,000 153.7/$39.00 -0.1%
TWX $7,454 200.0/$37.73 1.2%



Ticker DCA Investment #2* DCA #2 Price/Shares DCA Cumulative Shares/Cost Basis DCA % Change
AEP $500 $41.10/12.2 24.8/$40.40 1.7%
HCP $500 $41.38/12.1 24.8/$40.37 2.5%
RCI $500 $38.88/12.9 26.4/$37.90 2.6%
VZ $500 $39.00/12.8 25.6/$39.02 -0.5%
TWX $621 (*DCA #1) $37.73/16.5 16.5/$37.73 XXX




Ticker Shares Cost Basis Price, Close 1/19/12 % Change
CMLS 500 $3.76 (Stop: $3.00) $3.89 3.5%
SIRI 380 $2.14 (Stop: $1.95) $2.15 0.5%

Penny stocks are stocks that trade under $5.00 and trade on the NASDAQ, AMEX, or OTCBB and PINKSHEETS. These stocks are highly volatile and therefore are considered risky. However, with significant interest, we have seen penny stocks quadruple or even gone as high as 10X. Examples of penny stocks that have gone this crazy are JAZZ, HGSI, and DNDN.

Penny stocks are very sensitive to news and events as it pertains to the company. When a company releases news that is deemed significant or groundbreaking, it is typical for traders to step in and buy the stock, and hold it for forward looking events that will keep the price up or keep interest in the stock.


initial investment of just $5,000 and what the gains would've been if you would have purchased the stock during its micro-cap days.
Company Ticker Date Purchase Purchase Price Market Cap Today's Price Return
Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) Sep. 2002 $0.98 $151.5 million $45.31 $231,000
Select Comfort (SCSS) Dec. 2008 $0.19 $10.67 million $22.04 $580,000
Hansen Natural (HANS) Mar. 2003 $0.49 $42.66 million $95 $970,000
Questcor Pharm (QCOR) Aug. 2007 $0.35 $21.96 million $43.39 $620,000
Evcarco Inc (OTC:EVCA) no change during last trading session to close at $0.0006 with the trading volume of 61.82 million shares.
SavWatt USA Inc (OTC:SAVW) went up 18.18% to close at $0.0013 with the trading volume of 37.86 million shares.

IDO Security, Inc. (OTC:IDOI) no change during last trading session to close at $0.0001 with the trading volume of 35.30 million shares.

NaturalNano, Inc. (OTC:NNAN) went down 5.56% to close at $0.0017 with the trading volume of 18.29 million shares.

Attitude Drinks Incorporated (OTC:ATTD) went down 34.21% to close at $0.0025 with the trading volume of 15.17 million shares.

Silverado Gold Mines Ltd. (USA) (OTC:SLGLF) went down 5.00% to close at $0.002 with the trading volume of 1.12 million shares.
Evcarco Inc (OTC:EVCA) went up 33.33% to close at $0.0003 with the trading volume of 9.99 million shares.

Far East Energy Corporation (OTC:FEEC) went up 25.00% to close at $0.2 with the trading volume of 1.88 million shares.

Drinks Americas Holdings, Ltd. (OTC:DKAM) went up 4.35% to close at $0.0023 with the trading volume of 5.38 million shares.

Kiwibox.com Inc (OTC:KIWB) went down 6.67% to close at $0.045 with the trading volume of 6.04 million shares.


Thoughts ?

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Mad Money Fund “top 12 for 2012 stock picks”

“top picks” . Make of them what you will.



Mad Money Fund  “top 12 for 2012 stock picks”
—Flowserve Corp.(XNYS:FLS - News)
—Agilent Technologies(XNYS:A)
—SNAP On Inc. (XNYS:SNA - News)
—AES Corp (XNYS:AES - News)
—American Tower Corp (XNYS:AMT - News)
—Coca-Cola Co.(XNYS:KO - News)
—National Oilwell Varco Inc. (XNYS:NOV - News)
—Halliburton Co. (XNYS:HAL - News)
—Google Inc. (XNAS:GOOG - News)
—Mattel Inc. (XNAS:MAT - News)
---RPC, Inc. (RES)
---Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
(Public, NYSE:CMG)

Monday, December 5, 2011

Top stocks to buy in December 2011

Portfolio for December
CompanySectorNov. 30 closeScouter score
Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners (PSE 0.00%, news)Oil and natural gas$30.4110
Rex Energy (REXX 0.00%, news)Oil and natural gas$16.159
Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR 0.00%, news)Oil and natural gas$26.4610
Global Partners (GLP 0.00%, news)Petroleum products$20.698
InfoSpace (INSP 0.00%, news)Internet search$9.648
Encore Energy Partners (ENP +130.46%, news)Oil and natural gas$20.0510
Evolution Petroleum (EPM 0.00%, news)Oil and natural gas$7.308
ECA Marcellus Trust I (ECT 0.00%, news)Natural gas$25.158
Innophos (IPHS 0.00%, news)Specialty phosphates$49.259
Heico (HEI 0.00%, news)Aerospace and defense$59.348
Mobile Mini (MINI 0.00%, news)Rental storage$18.039
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Capstead Mortgage (CMO 0.00%, news)Real estate investments$12.4810
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Wyndham Worldwide (WYN 0.00%, news)Lodging$35.4510
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 0.00%, news)Restaurants$321.5610
NewMarket (NEU 0.00%, news)Specialty chemicals$197.8910
Bally Technologies (BYI 0.00%, news)Application software$38.3410
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OSI Systems (OSIS 0.00%, news)Electronic components$47.819
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Quaker Chemical (KWR 0.00%, news)Specialty chemicals$38.919
Nara Bancorp (NARA, news)Banking$9.379
Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO 0.00%, news)Biotechnology$9.489

Friday, November 11, 2011

Mad Money Fund Top November stock pick Chipotle Mexican Grill Public, ( NYSE:CMG)

Public, NYSE:CMG)

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

(Public, NYSE:CMG) Watch this stock
 

Dow Jones12,153.382.18%
S&P 5001,263.84
Services1.89%
CMG329.271.04%
 Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. and its subsidiaries (Chipotle) operate restaurants throughout the United States, as well as two restaurants in Toronto, Canada and one in London, England. As of December 31, 2010, Chipotle operated 1,084 restaurants. The Company’s restaurants serve a menu of tacos, burritos, salads and burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla). The Company manages its operations and restaurants based on five regions that all report into a single segment.Revenues were $571.561 million up 22.43% from $466.841 million. TTM revenues were $2.05 billion or $65.61 per share up from TTM revenues of $1.65 billion or $51.82 per share. TTM revenue per share was up 26.6%. Same stores sales were up 10%

Net income was $50.657 million up 9% from $46.461 million. Net income per share was $1.59 up 8.9% from $1.46 per share.

Cash and long-term investments were $439.5 million and no debt. Long-term investments were $89.712 million.

Cash flow for the quarter was $75.133 million up from $37.3 million. TTM cash flow was $205.7 million or $6.60 per share up from TTM cash flow of $167.88 million or $5.28 per share. Cash flow per share was up 25%. Capital expenditures for six months were $57.681 million up 38.5% from $41.653 million. For the quarter, they spent $31.243 million up 42% from $21.95 million last year.

The Company repurchased 32,283 for an average price of $277.54 for the second quarter of 2011. They spent about $8.96 million to repurchase those shares.

Thompsonfn estimates: September 24, 2011
3Q:2011 $1.85
4Q:2011 $1.85
Fiscal 2011 $6.81
Fiscal 2012 $8.62

The Company now has 1,131 restaurants. They opened 39 new restaurants I the second quarter, including 3 relocations. They expect to open 135 to 145 restaurants for the full fiscal year. New restaurants are hitting the high end of their $1.4 million and $1.5 million opening sales range. The average sales volume for nearly 1,000 of their restaurants that have been open for at least 12 months has passed $1.9 million for the first time. These stores average $1.927 million in revenues per year.

Restaurant level margins were 25.8% down 110 basis points from 26.9% last year. Operating margins were 14.67% down from 16.06% last year. Margins were negatively affected by food inflation and the U.S Attorney’s Office entering the immigration investigation in April.

The company has raised prices which they believe will offset all or nearly all of the impact from food inflation on margins. They also have taken steps to ensure that illegal immigrants aren’t hired by the company. They are using the E-Verify system, the Department of Homeland Security's online tool, which allows the Company to verify the identity and work authorization status of every new employee immediately after the time of hire. They have hired about 12,000 new employees since March when they started to use the E-Verify system. They believe the investigation is running smoothly.

thompsonFN estimates: July 19, 2011
Q2:2011 $1.68
Q3:2011 $1.88
Fiscal 2011 $6.82
Fiscal 2012 $8.48

Potential growth drivers: It's a fantastically run company that seems to proliferate and is always popular.

1. International – They have only a few stores in major European cities. They are going to focus on developing their U.S stores first, but someday they will shift focus internationally.

2. The new restaurant concept - ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen. They will open their first restaurant in Washington DC soon. We will have to wait to see how well it does.

3. Expansion of their menu. The location at the Dulles Airport serves breakfast. Their lease requires it to do so. But the breakfast menu has been successful there. They may in time expand their breakfast to other locations.

Conclusion:
Growth, growth, growth! The additional of opening their asian cuisine stores supplies this company with a whole new way to infuse this lovely growth story. only in 38 states. still room for growth in their core business. with shophouse, they're going to duplicate their success in the chinese fast casual market. 
  
Chipotle is among my favorite restaurant investments. BWLD, Panera and BJRI are three others that I like for different reasons. BWLD has good long-term potential but I can also trade it a fairly predictable range a few times a year. Panera has similar growth potential as CMG, but the valuation is much better. And BJRI gives me slower growth but very consistent growth.

Chipotle’s PE ratio is 53 and it has a cash flow yield of 2.1%.  Just now getting into global expansion, potential for a stock split. Based on the PE or cash flow yields the Company is expensive. But it has a large premium because they consistently grow at high rates and they have huge potential for growth. They now have 1,131 restaurants and analysts believe they can build 3500, so there is a lot of room to grow. They also will be rolling out a new Asian concept restaurant. This would significantly boost their growth potential if the restaurant is successful. So they carry a high premium.

Chipotle is one of my favorite investments, but not at one value point. If I didn’t already own them, I would buy some now and keep trying to add at better and better value points over time. But my Chipotle strategy is based on a ten to twenty year plan and again I won’t be buying at only one value point. And I will be buying over time, always trying to increase the average value of my total position in them as I do with all of my stocks.

I think everyone should own some shares of Chipotle, but when the PE is high, I try to buy less. As the PE goes lower I add more – over time this strategy increases the value of my total portfolio as I do this with all of my stocks. I have found that for most of my really big growers, they may go years without giving me a great entry point, but at some point, they always do. If one waits for that great entry point, they will do well, but they could miss huge growth during the waiting period when earnings keep going up and the margin of safety grows for shares even purchased at high valuations. Outperform. The food is amazing, people want healthy and responsible food options, it's fast, it's delicious and it's affordable. They are coming out with their asian line and it looks like a great success

For instance in 2005, CMG was selling for a PE of 90, but the price was $59 per share. If one bought at $59 in 2005, they purchased it at a very high premium. Even today’s price of $320.30 is at a better valuation with a PE of 53. But the margin of safety is what is important. Today with earnings of $6.04, the PE if the price fell to $59 would be 9.77. During the Great recession, the PE fell to 15.49, so the person that bought at a 90 PE in 2005, is very unlikely to see their principal endangered. I believe it is important to capture that growth from high PE to high PE over time. To do this with confidence one has to believe in the company long-term relevancy.

They have given us plenty of clues to their staying power. They have been a strong company since going public. Chipotle has proven they can flourish in a niche-y market (giant burritos) - I think if this new concept (Shophouse) is anywhere near as good, they could comple close to doubling over a few yearsThey have grown to 1131 restaurants without using debt. Even during the Great Recession, they had only one quarter when earnings were down and even then they were down only a little. They produce huge amounts of cash flow even after you take out for capital expenditures to build large numbers of new restaurants. As an investment, I may be a little late. As a pick, this is solid? dont think so , buy , buy , buy !Same store sales are still growing at impressive rates, so there are no signs of cannibalization. CMG represent a very strong and important stock in my portfolio and I don’t see that changing for anytime soon      As of December 31, 2010, the Company delivered ingredients and other supplies to its restaurants from 22 independently owned and operated regional distribution centers.Chipotle categorizes its restaurants as either end-caps (at the end of a line of retail outlets), in-lines (in a line of retail outlets), free-standing or other. As of December 31, 2010, of its restaurants in operation, the Company had 212 free-standing units, 663 end-cap locations, 174 in-line locations and 35 other.
 Chipotle has been a great Caps investment for me and a great real investment for me. So I keep notes on them regularly. This is the McDonald's of the next generation. And with only about 1,000 restaurants and the new ShopHouse concept just coming out, there's plenty of room for growth.   

The price is very high at $329.30, yet if I didn't own them, I wouldn't hesitate to buy some now and then buy more on the dips below 310.00 a share . 
329.27
+3.39(1.04%) Target price 425.00 by Mid 2012 ........