Are you trading stocks right now? 3 things investors need to watch in December:

Are you trading stocks right now? Three things investors need to watch in December:
The November employment report, due on Dec. 6, could determine the outcome of what is arguably the most important event of the month for markets: the Fed's Dec. 17 and 18 policy meeting.

Congress and the federal budget will be also be back in focus, with budget conferees expected to provide a budget proposal on Dec. 13; the continuing resolution to fund the government runs out on Jan. 15.

"Seasonality is very strong, and it's hard to argue against the momentum coming out of the September Fed meeting. Now you run into the December Fed meeting," said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG. "They could very easily decide to do something then. I think people in general have discounted to too large a degree no movement at the December meeting." "It would be a surprise if all of sudden you do get a strong jobs number, and the Fed surprisingly decides, 'we're going to do a token tapering' and maybe the market would be just caught flat-footed," said Mark Luschini, chief market strategist at Janney Montgomery. "Those who say that any tapering is factored in to the market, I don't necessarily agree with."

Stock traders are also keeping an eye on yields, with the 10-year one of their most closely watched metrics. It was yielding 2.74 percent Wednesday. Treasury yields would be expected to move higher if the jobs report is better than expected.

"I think the larger story is not whether or not there will be a negative reaction to a shift in Fed position because the answer is yes. That is a given but it doesn't matter. What matters is whether it shifts the ultimate path of equities," Greenhaus said. A higher 10-year yield is not a problem for stocks, until it gets to about 3.5 percent, Greenhaus added.

November's retail sales data, due on Dec. 12, will also be important as it will be watched by the Fed and it's also a key to the strength of the holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation expects November and December holiday sales gains of 3.9 percent. "It'll be telling as to whether the consumer and this deleveraging process…is going to lead to sustained or improved spending prospects," Luschini said.


The Fed surprised markets in September when it refrained from tapering back its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program, a decision that emboldened stock market bulls and helped take the market to record highs.
While the market paid little heed to Washington's budget battling in October, Luschini said there is a slight risk it could unsettle markets in the next go round.

Congress is due to return by Dec. 9, and their willingness to cooperate could be important. "That could be telling," he said. "Are we going to see the prospects of a replay of what we had just two months ago?"

Luschini and others say the market is ready for a pullback but the seasonal tide could push it higher in December regardless. The Dow and Russell are at all-time highs, the S&P 500 is close to its recent high, while Nasdaq reached a fresh 13-year high.


"That (seasonality) is tempered by the fact that the market is flirting with all-time highs," he said, adding that the market could continue to rise unless the Fed or Congress deliver a surprise
By CNBC P. Domm.

Top stocks to buy in December 2011

Portfolio for December
Company	Sector	Nov. 30 close	Scouter score
Pioneer Southwest Energy Partners (PSE 0.00%, news)	Oil and natural gas	$30.41	10
Rex Energy (REXX 0.00%, news)	Oil and natural gas	$16.15	9
Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR 0.00%, news)	Oil and natural gas	$26.46	10
Global Partners (GLP 0.00%, news)	Petroleum products	$20.69	8
InfoSpace (INSP 0.00%, news)	Internet search	$9.64	8
Encore Energy Partners (ENP +130.46%, news)	Oil and natural gas	$20.05	10
Evolution Petroleum (EPM 0.00%, news)	Oil and natural gas	$7.30	8
ECA Marcellus Trust I (ECT 0.00%, news)	Natural gas	$25.15	8
Innophos (IPHS 0.00%, news)	Specialty phosphates	$49.25	9
Heico (HEI 0.00%, news)	Aerospace and defense	$59.34	8
Mobile Mini (MINI 0.00%, news)	Rental storage	$18.03	9
AFC Enterprises (AFCE 0.00%, news)	Quick-service restaurants	$15.70	9
XO Group (XOXO 0.00%, news)	Specialty retail	$7.37	7
Neutral Tandem (TNDM 0.00%, news)	Wireless communications	$10.81	8
Interval Leisure Group (IILG 0.00%, news)	Travel and leisure	$14.01	8
China Digital TV (STV 0.00%, news)	Application software	$3.63	8
Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS 0.00%, news)	Offshore energy services	$33.74	8
Buckeye Technologies (BKI 0.00%, news)	Specialty products	$30.98	8
Thompson Creek Metals (TC 0.00%, news)	Mining	$6.99	8
Orbcomm (ORBC 0.00%, news)	Communication services	$3.30	8
Colfax (CFX 0.00%, news)	Industrial machinery	$29.31	8
Whiting USA Trust I (WHX 0.00%, news)	Oil and natural gas	$17.30	8
Dun & Bradstreet (DNB 0.00%, news)	Business information	$69.87	10
Capstead Mortgage (CMO 0.00%, news)	Real estate investments	$12.48	10
Williams Partners (WPZ 0.00%, news)	Natural gas	$58.06	9
Main Street Capital (MAIN 0.00%, news)	Investments	$19.51	10
Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI 0.00%, news)	Banking	$28.19	10
Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI 0.00%, news)	Credit services	$9.78	10
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT 0.00%, news)	Residential real estate	$16.12	10
Waters (WAT 0.00%, news)	Medical instruments	$80.00	10
Corrections Corp. of America (CXW 0.00%, news)	Prisons	$21.00	10
Legacy Reserves (LGCY 0.00%, news)	Oil and natural gas	$26.82	10
CubeSmart (CUBE 0.00%, news)	Rental storage	$9.97	10
Chesapeake Lodging Trust (CHSP 0.00%, news)	Hotels	$15.90	10
Flowserve (FLS 0.00%, news)	Flow controls	$102.77	10
Energen (EGN 0.00%, news)	Oil and natural gas	$50.72	10
Wyndham Worldwide (WYN 0.00%, news)	Lodging	$35.45	10
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 0.00%, news)	Restaurants	$321.56	10
NewMarket (NEU 0.00%, news)	Specialty chemicals	$197.89	10
Bally Technologies (BYI 0.00%, news)	Application software	$38.34	10
Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL 0.00%, news)	Natural gas	$34.80	10
OSI Systems (OSIS 0.00%, news)	Electronic components	$47.81	9
Core Laboratories (CLB 0.00%, news)	Oil-field services	$116.05	10
Cedar Fair (FUN 0.00%, news)	Amusement parks	$23.09	10
Taser International (TASR 0.00%, news)	Electronic controls	$6.02	10
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB 0.00%, news)	Hotels	$18.52	10
SPS Commerce (SPSC 0.00%, news)	Business services	$23.45	10
Quaker Chemical (KWR 0.00%, news)	Specialty chemicals	$38.91	9
Nara Bancorp (NARA, news)	Banking	$9.37	9
Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO 0.00%, news)	Biotechnology	$9.48	9

December Top Stock Picks

1. ( USO )42.09 a share 12/1 - Target Price 65.00 by 5/1/09
United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) is a commodity pool that issues limited partnership interests or units that may be purchased and sold on the American Stock Exchange (the AMEX). The Company invests in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil and other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), International Currency Exchange (ICE) Futures or other United States and foreign exchanges (collectively, Oil Futures Contracts). It holds interests in other oil-related investments such as cash-settled options on Oil Futures Contracts, forward oil contracts, and oil-based over-the-counter transactions. As of December 31, 2007, USOF held 4,754 Oil Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX and 300 Oil Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures.ttom has been reached....Bottom wait that has been said already... ummm no this time for sure? lol no one can say for sure but between OPEC and oil executives looking for ways to keep up profits during the slump, this stock has no where but up to go. right? i want cheap oil as much as the next guy but with recent rebounds this pick is a no brainer at less than 42$.Oil has benn over sold , this is a long term play. oil has dropped alot the past few months , however when the usa & China rebound from the slump , this will be a good play in the future ! Oil will rebound before the overall economy rebounds as it is a mandatory resource and our infrastructure is built around this resource


2. ( WMT ) Wal-Mart Stores 55.88 a share 12/1 - Target Price 62.00 by 1/15/09
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (Wal-Mart) operates retail stores in various formats around the world. The Company earns the trust of its customers every day by providing an assortment of merchandise and services at every day low prices, while fostering a culture that rewards and embraces mutual respect, integrity and diversity. Wal-Mart’s operations comprise three business segments: Wal-Mart Stores, Sam’s Club and International. Its Wal-Mart Stores segment is the largest segment of the Company’s business, accounting for 64% of its net sales, during the fiscal year ended January 31, 2008 (fiscal 2008), and operates stores in three different formats in the United States, as well as Wal-Mart’s online retail operations, walmart.com. Its Sam’s Club segment consists of membership warehouse clubs in the United States and the segment’s online retail operations, samsclub.com. Sam’s Club accounted for 11.8% of the Company’s net sales during fiscal 2008.Let's face it, the economy can tank, gas prices can soar, and Wal-mart will continue to make money. Wal-mart is the first place that the people making cutbacks will spend their money.holiday season and they're not going bankrupt or asking for a bailout.If you paid attention when you were shopping you've noticed the sharp jump in grocery prices that coincided with the rise in fuel prices. Now that fuel prices have fallen, it is equally as noticable that the price of groceries and consumer goods hasn't. This means higher profits for Grocery stores in the near term.

Prices will start to fall as competition takes over again and drives prices lower, but in the meantime there is a little cream comming off the top at Christmas for retailers that offer consumables. This should be particularly true for Super-Retail stores. I like Wal-Mart whose shoppers are going to be buying groceries while they are in shopping for Holiday Gifts and Winter clothing. They should do slightly better than Target, who is considered a bit more high end and could be hurt by families looking to maximize their paychecks during these tough times.Buy up on the dips and sell when u reach a good return on your money.Dividend: 0.24 a share.