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Showing posts with label mar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mar. Show all posts

Friday, November 28, 2014

New Lifetime High Reached: Marriott International (MAR) $MAR



Marriott International ( MAR) as a new lifetime high candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Marriott International as such a stock due to the following factors:



■MAR has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $172.7 million.
■MAR has traded 40,976 shares today.
■MAR is trading at a new lifetime high


Marriott International as a buy. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, good cash flow from operations, solid stock price performance, growth in earnings per share and increase in net income. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company shows low profit margins.

Highlights from the ratings report include:
■ The revenue growth came in higher than the industry average of 9.6%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 9.5%. Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share.
■ Investors have apparently begun to recognize positive factors similar to those we have mentioned in this report, including earnings growth. This has helped drive up the company's shares by a sharp 64.05% over the past year, a rise that has exceeded that of the S&P 500 Index. Regarding the stock's future course, although almost any stock can fall in a broad market decline, MAR should continue to move higher despite the fact that it has already enjoyed a very nice gain in the past year.
■ MARRIOTT INTL INC has improved earnings per share by 25.0% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past two years. We feel that this trend should continue. During the past fiscal year, MARRIOTT INTL INC increased its bottom line by earning $2.01 versus $1.72 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($2.56 versus $2.01).
■ Net operating cash flow has increased to $281.00 million or 44.10% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, MARRIOTT INTL INC has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of -17.73%.
■ The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has exceeded that of the S&P 500, but is less than that of the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry average. The net income increased by 20.0% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, going from $160.00 million to $192.00 million.

Monday, September 8, 2014

Shares of Marriott International (NYSE: $MAR) have received a consensus rating of “Buy” taret 85



Shares of Marriott International (NYSE:MAR) have received a consensus rating of “Buy” from the twenty-three analysts that are covering the company, StockRatingsNetwork reports. Nine analysts have rated the stock with a hold recommendation and ten have issued a buy recommendation on the company. The average 12-month target price among brokerages that have issued ratings on the stock in the last year is $66.85.

A number of research firms have recently commented on MAR. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised their price target on shares of Marriott International from $74.00 to $84.00 in a research note on Thursday. They now have an “overweight” rating on the stock. Separately, analysts at Raymond James reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of Marriott International in a research note on Thursday, July 31st. They now have a $72.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $65.00. Finally, analysts at Zacks reiterated a “neutral” rating on shares of Marriott International in a research note on Thursday, July 31st. They now have a $69.00 price target on the stock.

Shares of Marriott International (NYSE:MAR) opened at 70.83 on Friday. Marriott International has a one year low of $40.74 and a one year high of $70.98. The stock’s 50-day moving average is $67.04 and its 200-day moving average is $60.6. The company has a market cap of $20.581 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.79.

Marriott International (NYSE:MAR) last announced its earnings results on Tuesday, July 29th. The company reported $0.71 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.67 by $0.04. The company had revenue of $3.48 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.53 million. During the same quarter last year, the company posted $0.57 earnings per share. Marriott International’s revenue was up 6.8% compared to the same quarter last year. Analysts expect that Marriott International will post $2.50 EPS for the current fiscal year.

The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which is scheduled for Friday, September 26th. Shareholders of record on Thursday, August 21st will be paid a dividend of $0.20 per share. This represents a $0.80 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 1.13%. The ex-dividend date is Tuesday, August 19th.

Marriott International, Inc is a diversified hospitality company. It is a lodging company with more than 3,700 properties in 73 countries and territories

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Marriott International (MAR) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Tuesday Today $MAR



Marriott International (NYSE:MAR) is set to announce its Q114 earnings results on Tuesday, April 29th. Analysts expect the company to announce earnings of $0.51 per share and revenue of $3.30 billion for the quarter. Marriott International has set its Q1 guidance at $0.47-0.52 EPS and its FY14 guidance at $2.29-2.45 EPS.

Marriott International (NYSE:MAR) last released its earnings data on Wednesday, February 19th. The company reported $0.49 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.50 by $0.01. The company had revenue of $3.22 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.32 billion. On average, analysts expect Marriott International to post $2.41 EPS for the current fiscal year and $2.82 EPS for the next fiscal year.

Shares of Marriott International (NYSE:MAR) opened at 57.23 on Monday. Marriott International has a 52 week low of $38.17 and a 52 week high of $57.85. The stock’s 50-day moving average is $55.53 and its 200-day moving average is $49.77. The company has a market cap of $16.873 billion and a P/E ratio of 28.82.

Several analysts have recently commented on the stock. Analysts at Telsey Advisory Group set a $60.00 price target on shares of Marriott International in a research note on Tuesday, April 22nd. They now have a “not rated” rating on the stock. On the ratings front, analysts at Credit Suisse raised their price target on shares of Marriott International from $55.00 to $60.00 in a research note on Friday, April 4th. They now have an “outperform” rating on the stock. Finally, analysts at FBR Capital Markets raised their price target on shares of Marriott International from $54.00 to $59.00 in a research note on Friday, March 28th. Five research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and thirteen have given a buy rating to the company’s stock. The stock presently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $56.14.

Marriott International, Inc is a diversified hospitality company. It is a lodging company with more than 3,700 properties in 73 countries and territories

Friday, March 7, 2014

$MAR Marriott International Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript



Marriott International Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript Feb. 20, 2014 2:10 PM ET | About: MAR by: SA Transcripts Executives
Arne M. Sorenson - Chief Executive Officer, President, Director and Member of Committee for Excellence
Carl T. Berquist - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Executive Vice President
Laura E. Paugh - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations
Analysts
Joshua Attie - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Ryan Meliker - MLV & Co LLC, Research Division
Steven E. Kent - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Joseph Greff - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Robin M. Farley - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Nikhil Bhalla - FBR Capital Markets & Co., Research Division
Thomas Allen - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Charles Patrick Scholes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division
Felicia R. Hendrix - Barclays Capital, Research Division
David Loeb - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division
Ian Rennardson - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Smedes Rose - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division
Shaun C. Kelley - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Marriott International (MAR) Q4 2013 Earnings Call February 20, 2014 10:00 AM ET
Operator
Good morning. My name is Jackie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Marriott International's Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Arne Sorenson, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
Arne M. Sorenson
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2013 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Carl Berquist, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations.
As always, before we get into the discussion of our results, let me first remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.
Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night, along with our comments today, are effective only today, February 20, 2014, and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks on our website at www.marriott.com/investor.
Just last month, I attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Each year, Davos offers an opportunity to explore the important macro trends around the world: the emergence of the middle class in Asia and Africa, new technology and its impact on employment, prospects for global economic growth. These are all top-of-mind issues for us, as both global travel and our pipeline accelerates around the world.
We were delighted while in Davos to announce our definitive agreement to purchase Protea Hotels, a brand that will allow us to leap ahead in both distribution and development in Africa. This transaction remains on track and should close in early April.
2013 was a great year. We saw strengthening demand, high occupancies, record fees and the largest new room signing year in the company's history, signing more than a deal a day. We are encouraged by our record 67,000 signed rooms in 2013; a significant growth in our hotel development pipeline, reaching 195,000 rooms; and the success we've had with asset sales.
To date, in 2014, we've completed the sale of our London EDITION hotel and our Renaissance hotel in Barcelona and have signed contracts for the sale of the New York EDITION and the Miami South Beach EDITION.
In North America, we opened more than 15,000 rooms in 2013. That is 1 out of every 5 new rooms added in the U.S. industry. Our North American development team signed deals for nearly 34,000 rooms during the year and welcomed 90 new owners and operators to our North American system.
Many are in new markets. In fact, over 70% of the hotels in our North American pipeline are outside the top 25 U.S. MSAs. U.S. lodging industry supply growth was less than 1% in 2013, and STR expects industry supply to increase only 1.2% in 2014, well below the 4% we saw in 1999.
Our 2013 pipeline growth is less a sign of significant new supply and more a sign of our growing market share. We continue to believe we are quite early in this development cycle and don't see U.S. oversupply in the near term.
We added a new brand platform to our Americas region in 2013, AC Hotels, imported from Spain. The first U.S. AC Hotel should open in early 2015. We already have 22 projects in our Americas pipeline for this fast-growing brand and another 27 projects in early discussion.
In Europe, we opened 2,400 new rooms in 2013 and signed development contracts for a record 5,600 rooms. We converted the St. Ermin's Autograph in London and signed the 266-room JW Marriott Venice, which should open by early 2015. We launched the MOXY brand in Europe. We already have more than a dozen MOXY HOTELS in the pipeline and another 15 in discussion. We anticipate opening 150 MOXY HOTELS in Europe in the next 10 years.
In the fall, we introduced our EDITION brand to the U.K. to a great fanfare. We are thrilled by the early success of that hotel, including the fact that the restaurant is booked full for dinner for the next 2 months. Our next EDITION opening in Miami should occur in the early fall and should be a great deal of fun. With our terrific, creative partnership between Marriott and the very talented Ian Schrager, the EDITION brand is building momentum around the globe.
In the Caribbean and Latin America, we opened nearly 1,000 rooms in 2013 and signed nearly 3,000 new rooms, driving our pipeline in the region up to nearly 50 projects. In November, we opened a beautiful new 320-room Ritz-Carlton in Aruba. It's doing very well with vacationers from the frozen East Coast. Last year, we announced 4 new projects in Brazil and signed 9 limited service deals in Mexico.
In the Middle East and Africa, we opened more than 1,000 rooms in 2013 and signed nearly 3,000 rooms. The Protea transaction will propel us to #1 in Sub-Saharan Africa and provide us with local brands and talented people to fuel even faster growth in the region.
In the Asia Pacific region, we opened over 5,000 rooms and signed an industry-leading 22,000 rooms in 2013. In China, economic growth may have moderated, but mixed-use projects continue to offer expansion opportunities, and we are aggressively pursuing the domestic leisure market.
Elsewhere in the region, rapid economic growth and significant travel from China's rising middle class is fueling new development. In the last 2 years, we've seen a doubling of outbound travel from mainland China to our comp hotels in Asia. Incidentally, we expect to open the 1,060-room JW Marriott in Macau in late 2014 and the 220-room Ritz-Carlton in Macau in 2015.
We live the motto, "Success is never final." For many years, our brands have earned significant REVPAR premiums with their competitive set, taking more than our fair share of business in markets around the world, and those premiums are increasing. Our worldwide Smith Travel REVPAR index for our brands increased nearly 1 full point in 2013.
We were the first hotel company to go asset-light and remain committed to that strategy. Most hotel additions to our system have little to no Marriott investment. If we decide to invest in a project, we seek a return on that investment as well as a long-term fee stream. We may prime the pump for distribution, such as our recent investment in EDITION, but we are not real estate speculators. In fact, it is our consistent and long-term commitment to strong returns on invested capital that really sets us apart from our competitors, demonstrated by our 32% return on invested capital last year.
In the past 5 years, despite a significant economic downturn, we have grown our system by more than 20%, while also returning $4 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases and reducing diluted shares outstanding by 16%.
In just the last 7 weeks, we've announced agreements to sell assets totally -- totaling nearly $880 million in transactions expected to close over the next year or so. With such capital recycling picking up, we also expect to accelerate cash returns to shareholders. In fact, we anticipate distributing $1.25 billion to $1.5 billion in dividends and share repurchases in 2014.
Our legacy of relentless improvement continued in other ways in 2013. Last fall, Internet Retailer recognized Marriott as the fourth largest mobile merchant on its annual list, after such big names as Apple and Amazon and well ahead of our lodging competitors. Our total gross room bookings on mobile devices increased 67% year-over-year. And as our customers go digital, our success in winning them goes beyond the booking.
In August 2013, we led the industry in the launch of mobile check-in, making it available in 329 Marriott Hotels in North America. In 2014, the entire Marriott Hotels brand, all 500 properties worldwide, will offer both mobile check-in and checkout. This will be the first brand-wide deployment of this scale.
These experiences are critical to changing the way that our guests interact with Marriott. In fact, success in mobile requires success on 2 fronts: an easy-to-use mobile app experience and flawless execution on property once the guest arrives. That is, "I easily checked in with my mobile device and my room was actually ready, as promised, when I arrived." Our execution success rate on mobile check-in is 98%, and guests are now telling us that they are more likely to stay with us again based upon this mobile experience. One of Marriott's core strengths is executing at scale, and it will be an advantage in the digital age too.
New brands such as EDITION, MOXY and Autograph attract new guests and provide a halo to our entire system, and that system is doing very well. In the 2013 American Customer Satisfaction Index, our combined hotel brands scored not only higher than our lodging competitors, but outpaced our own previous 20 years of strong performance.
At our recent full server -- Full Service Owners Conference, we showcased all that is new for 2014 at Marriott, a new Marriott hotel room design, new offerings for mobile check-in and mobile guest services, new initiatives for fitness and wellness, exciting meetings concepts and new lobby Greatrooms. Owners are excited, we are excited and we think our guests will be excited too.
Years ago, some speculated that we couldn't add more hotels in North America because our market share was already so high. Nothing could be further from the truth. Our unit growth is sustainable, not only in the developing world but with strong brands that work for owners and franchisees in the developed world as well. We would no sooner write off growth in the U.S. than we would in China.
Further, we are seizing growth across a broadening spectrum of product, entering new segments and new markets that are supported by growing customer demand. From Courtyard to EDITION to Renaissance, we have again and again demonstrated the power of our industry-leading diverse brand portfolio.
Now for some more thoughts about 2013 performance and our 2014 outlook, let me turn things over to Carl.
Carl T. Berquist
Thanks, Arne. Well, we were very pleased with our 2013 results. For the full year 2013, diluted earnings per share totaled $2. Excluding the Courtyard joint venture gain in the prior year, EPS was up 22%. Full year fee revenue exceeded $1.5 billion, a record and up 9% from 2012.
In the fourth quarter, diluted earnings per share totaled $0.49, at the high end of our $0.47 to $0.50 guidance range. Fee revenue was about $0.03 per share stronger than expected due to better REVPAR in many international markets and strengthening group business in North America.
Better-than-expected branding fees and profits from leased hotels added about $0.02. Our G&A was about $0.06 unfavorable. Although our ongoing net admin came in within $0.01 of what we expected, total G&A was higher due to greater-than-expected legal settlement costs and impairments of deferred contract acquisition costs. We also booked higher development expenses associated with the record level of new development deals in 2013 and expense transaction costs related to the Protea acquisition.
Our tax line helped us by about $0.03, largely due to several favorable discrete items. All in all, removing the noise in the G&A and taxes, it was a pretty strong quarter.
In North America, continued economic recovery drove North American systemwide REVPAR up nearly 5%. We saw very a strong REVPAR in San Francisco, Houston and Miami. The Red Sox, the World Series champions, drove business in Boston.
On the other hand, New York had tough comps to last year's Hurricane Sandy recovery effort. And Washington suffered from, well, being Washington. In most markets, we improved our mix of business and leisure demand was very strong. Group REVPAR at the Marriott brand rose over 4% in the fourth quarter compared to the year-ago quarter, with group room rates up nearly 3%.
Future group business looks even brighter. During 2013, our group sales organization put nearly 7% more Marriott hotel revenue on the books than in 2012. This is business that will be served in our hotels over the next 5 to 6 years.
Booking pace is another way of looking at group performance. It measures how much business is already signed today for 2014 compared to that amount signed for 2013 at the same time last year. Booking pace for the Marriott brand for 2014 is up over 4%, about the same as we reported in September, and corporate group pace is up nearly 10%. Since corporate demand is typically also quite short term, the trend is very encouraging for 2014.
We made significant improvements to our sales organization years ago, and today, one can see the payoff. Our group business outperformed competitors meaningfully in 2013. North American company-operated group REVPAR index for the Marriott brand, as measured by Smith Travel, increased nearly 6% in the fourth quarter.
In Europe, we saw signs of improved economic growth. Fourth quarter constant-dollar comparable REVPAR increased 3% across all our brands. REVPAR of our comparable hotels increased 6% in the U.K. and 9% in Germany. For the full year 2013, Europe represented about 8% of our fee revenue.
In the Caribbean and Latin America, REVPAR rose 9% in the fourth quarter across all brands, but excluding the inflation-driven Venezuela market, constant-dollar REVPAR rose 4%. Good leisure business and group demand drove results in the Caribbean, and Cancun reported double-digit REVPAR growth, concluding the year with a great Christmas holiday demand. Panama continues to report lower REVPAR due to oversupply. For the full year, Caribbean and Latin America represented about 4% of our fee revenue.
In the Middle East and Africa, REVPAR declined 9% across all brands in the fourth quarter. REVPAR growth was strong in Kuwait and Dubai, but we saw significant REVPAR declines in Egypt. In 2013, the Middle East and Africa represented about 2% of our fee revenue.
Our Asia Pacific region saw REVPAR increase 5% in the fourth quarter, with strength in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. REVPAR in greater China increased 3%, with REVPAR at our 13 comparable hotels in Shanghai up 9%. But government austerity measures intensified in Beijing, reducing food and beverage revenue. New supply constrained REVPAR growth in Tianjin and Sanya. In 2013, Asia Pacific contributed 9% of our free -- fee revenue, with about 1/2 of that coming from China.
Margin performance across our system was outstanding during 2013. Comparable company-operated house profit margins increased 130 basis points in North America and 90 basis points worldwide. Higher room rates and continued productivity gains drove our results. And adjusted for cost reimbursements, Marriott's operating income margin increased to a record 40%.
Worldwide, fee revenue totaled $388 million in the fourth quarter, as REVPAR was stronger than expected in many international markets. Both local and group catering revenue in the U.S. also exceeded expectation. For the full year 2013, incentive fees in North America increased 34%. Incentive fees from outside North America declined 2% due to a tough comparison to the prior year, moderate REVPAR growth in Asia and the turmoil in the Middle East.
Turning to 2014. For the full year, we expect REVPAR in North America to increase 4% to 6%. With little new U.S. industry supply and demand momentum building, we plan to further reduce discounting and drive rates higher. Special corporate rate negotiations for 2014 are largely complete, and comp accounts are showing roughly 5% higher room rates.
We expect REVPAR to increase 3% to 5% at our hotels outside North America, including growth at a mid-single-digit rate in both Asia and the Middle East, a low single-digit rate in Europe and a high single-digit rate in the Caribbean and Latin America. Worldwide systemwide, we expect REVPAR to increase 4% to 6%.
Including the planned acquisition of Protea hotels, we expect the number of gross rooms to increase roughly 6% in 2014 or about 5% net of dilution. We expect fee revenue will increase 7% to 10%, reflecting REVPAR and unit growth. Total incentive fees are likely to grow at a low double-digit rate.
In 2014, we anticipate owned, leased and other revenue, net of direct expenses, will total $210 million to $220 million. This outlook reflects lower termination fees, slightly higher preopening expenses and stronger profits from our owned and leased hotels in our affinity credit card. In 2013, owned, leased and other revenue, net of direct expenses, totaled $223 million, excluding the impact of $52 million of depreciation.
We expect 2014 depreciation and amortization should total roughly $120 million, with less accelerated amortization than the prior year. Depreciation and amortization in 2013 totaled $127 million.
In 2014, we expect G&A to be flat to down 2% year-over-year. For the full year 2013, general and administrative expenses totaled $651 million, excluding the impact of $75 million of depreciation and amortization.
All in all, we expect fully diluted EPS will total $2.29 to $2.45 in 2014, a 15% to 23% increase. We estimate that a 1-point change in our REVPAR outlook across our system in 2014, assuming it was evenly distributed, would be worth about $20 million in fees and roughly $5 million on the owned and leased line pretax.
For the full year 2014, we expect adjusted EBITDA to increase 8% to 13% to roughly $1.25 billion to -- I'm sorry, $1.425 billion to $1.495 billion. Investment spending could total $800 million to $1 billion, including about $150 million in maintenance spending.
In 2014, we plan to renovate several owned and leased hotels, build a Fairfield Inn in Brazil to launch that brand and to complete the acquisition of Protea. We expect asset sales and loan repayments to total $600 million to $700 million. As a result, as Arne said, we expect to return $1.25 billion to $1.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2014. Year-to-date, we've already purchased 5 million shares for $246 million.
In the first quarter of 2014, we anticipate REVPAR will increase 4% to 6% in North America and 3% to 5% internationally. The Easter holiday slides to the second quarter in 2014, which makes for easier group comparisons, but we'll have tough comparisons to last year's inauguration and Hurricane Sandy. We expect first quarter earnings per share to total $0.47 to $0.52.
We are planning an analyst meeting for Monday, September 8, at the new Washington Marriott Marquis hotel. Please mark your calendars. We'll be talking about investments we've made in the business over the past 4 years, a continental management structure that positions us for growth around the world, increased resources for new hotel development that has yielded an amazing acceleration in unit growth and the addition of 5 new brand platforms to our already leading portfolio that should yield more unit growth and guest satisfaction. And we'll be talking about our vision for the future.
We appreciate your interest in Marriott. [Operator Instructions] Jackie, we'll take questions now.

Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Joshua Attie with Citi.
Joshua Attie - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
The REVPAR guidance for North America of 4% to 6%, it seems like the economy is improving, you did roughly 5% in 2013. How did you think about the range? And are there any specific items that are weighing on the outlook or kind of put you toward the low end?
Arne M. Sorenson
I mean, I think thematically, as we start the year, we are building expectations for '14 which look a lot like '13. There are some signs that the economy is stronger now than it was a year ago. But they're not definitive, I think we would say. And so as we've done our planning and budgeting across the system, what we see is REVPAR growth in this 4% to 6% range. That obviously reflects also our distribution of assets, which is very broad. We're talking about 3,000 hotels, I think, across the United States with good distribution in essentially every market, as well as D.C., which we expect will continue to be weak. I think you didn't ask it quite this way, but if we were to sit here today and say, "Is there a greater chance of outperforming or underperforming?" I think we'd probably say there's a bit greater chance of outperforming than there is of underperforming. But we don't have the hard data which would cause us to come out and say you ought to start to build expectations above that 4% to 6% range.
Joshua Attie - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay, that's helpful. And you mentioned some individual markets, and you probably have the best insight into the impact that the new Marriott would have in D.C. Can you just kind of talk about what kind of impact you think it will have on the overall market and your other hotels in that region, I guess, in the back half of this year?
Arne M. Sorenson
I don't think the new Marriott Marquis is likely to be terribly impactful to our hotels or the other hotels. Obviously, the Marquis is a group shop, which will be right next to the Washington D.C. Convention Center, which has suffered a bit for not having a headquarters hotel right next to it. That hotel has obviously been in the development process in one way or another for about a decade. It hasn't been in group sales for quite that long, but we've been selling groups into that hotel for the last few years. And I suspect most of the business that they bring in early will be, in effect, incremental to Washington.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Meliker with MLV & Co.
Ryan Meliker - MLV & Co LLC, Research Division
Just first of all, can you kind of just walk through the depreciation and amortization changes for us? Help me understand. It looks like, from my calculations, that the overall depreciation and amortization based on the changes are up close to $40 million in '13 and more than that versus our expectations in '15. Where is that money coming from? Is that coming from unconsolidated entities or is that coming from somewhere on your income statement?
Carl T. Berquist
Sure. Let me kind of walk you through. Just to step back a little bit, what we plan to do in '14, we're going to be breaking out depreciation and amortization on the face of the income statement to provide more transparency, some better comparability with other peers and also to respond to some other questions from the analyst community. But when we did that and we start doing that, we have to make that consistent with the cash flow statement and then we float it through EBITDA as well. So some of the pieces that we've added there, as you'll see, when you look at the cash flow statement, we've added to the depreciation and amortization number there the accelerated amortization of contract acquisition costs. Previously, that was on a separate line item. It was about $21 million. And just to kind of talk a little bit about that, that relates to about 36 hotels where the contracts were revised or something happened to the contracts that, under the accounting rules, we have to accelerate that amortization. But only 7 of those 36 hotels left the system. The rest of them just had either amended contracts or signed new franchise agreements or something like that. Then we have depreciation and amortization that's in our -- reimbursed by our owners that's on a separate line item in the P&L, but we'll break that out as a place on the cash flow. So I think those 2 items are the items that are kind of new where we're providing more transparency. If you'd like, Laura and Betsy could really get granular with you and walk you through even more of this over the next day.
Ryan Meliker - MLV & Co LLC, Research Division
Okay, that might be helpful. And then also, I was hoping you guys might be able to give some color, if you have it, on when the Protea acquisition was going to close and what type of impact you think that acquisition is going to have to your owned and leased line in 2014?
Arne M. Sorenson
We think it will close about April 1. And I think the -- on a -- we're paying about 10x EBITDA, which we've disclosed. Obviously, there will be both a partial-year impact this year and there will be some closing costs that will flush through the P&L in -- it did in the fourth quarter but also will in the first and second quarters, I think, as well. So on balance, it's not going to be terribly impactful one way or another. I suspect we'll get a net few million dollars a quarter when the dust settles on the transaction costs and the like.
Laura E. Paugh
We -- when we announced the transaction, we said that the price was in the roughly $200 million, and we were buying it at about 10x EBITDA.
Ryan Meliker - MLV & Co LLC, Research Division
Right. I guess I was just thinking about the owned and leased line item. Specifically, your guidance at the midpoint is roughly $45 million above where you ended 2013. So just trying to figure out how much of that might be coming from Protea and how much of that is from your, I guess, legacy portfolio?
Carl T. Berquist
I think you've got to be careful. You've got to add -- take out the depreciation.
Arne M. Sorenson
Part of that is the depreciation.
Carl T. Berquist
Part of that's just the reclass of the depreciation on the base of the...
Laura E. Paugh
Ryan, when we close, we can walk you through it.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Steven Kent with Goldman Sachs.
Steven E. Kent - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
A couple of questions. First, can you just talk about the SG&A guidance? It looks like you're guiding roughly flat, and I wanted to understand that a little bit, especially in light of in the fourth quarter, where you talked about higher legal expenses and the impact of some deferred expenses. So if you could just go into a little bit more detail on that. And then for my follow-up, just some trends on group and conference bookings. In the past, you've talked that there was a lot of activity in the quarter for the quarter. Is that still the case or are you starting to get a little bit of a further readout?
Carl T. Berquist
Sure. I'll give you the G&A and then maybe we can try -- Arne can talk a little bit about the group. But Steven, in the fourth quarter, we had several items, as you mentioned, that were unusual. We had the Protea transaction costs and then our development incentives that we paid and the costs of the development, a record development. Just to give you a little statistic, through the third quarter, we had signed about 33,000 rooms, and by the end of the year, we had signed 67,000 rooms. So you can see the fourth quarter -- now obviously, there's always the rush to get rooms signed by year end, but nothing at that level. So it was just a record quarter of signings, drives a lot of legal costs, a lot of developer's incentives, obviously, which are great things. But that kind of was about $10 million more than what we had thought about when we had guided, together with Protea transaction costs. And then yes, we had some extraordinary legal costs that weren't anticipated, about $8 million. And then we had some impairments write-offs of about $6 million and then some other little cats and dogs. As you look forward into 2014, when we're saying we're flat, the direct and indirect will probably be up just a tiny bit relative to inflation and some investments we're making in some areas, especially in our continent structure, where we're hoping to offset those with the fact that these will be nonrecurring costs that we just talked about and just the management of the direct expenses.
Arne M. Sorenson
Yes. When I -- I'll give you a simpleton's answer on the G&A point to the -- when you look at about $25 million or so more of G&A than we guided for Q4, I think of that as a little shy of $10 million was related to Protea and development, about $15 million was related to noise, nonrecurring, and we probably had about $3 million to $5 million of sort of real G&A spending, which was above our guidance. And as we look into 2014, we are going to be more maniacally focused on managing those G&A dollars, and that's what's leading us to provide the guidance of essentially flattish sort of performance on that line item for the year. If you get to group trends, we end the year, and I think Carl mentioned this in his prepared remarks, with Marriott brand group on the books about 4%, a little over 4%, up from the same time a year ago for '13. We like the pattern of that so when you look at it for the Marriott brand, the first 3 quarters are stronger and probably up in the 6% range, something like that. And the fourth quarter looks relatively weaker. And that's okay because obviously, we've got 3 more quarters before we get to the fourth quarter, and so feel good about that pattern. The other thing that I think we saw as the year came to an end was great December bookings for all future periods. So when you look, not just at what came on the books for '14 but what came on for '14, '15, '16, '17, varies a little bit depending on the brand you look at and the precise hotel you're looking at. But we are looking at essentially record levels of group business confirmed and booked in December, and that just gives us further bullishness that group is doing what it should do as the economic cycle matures, and that is it's coming back. And hopefully, we'll see those trend lines continue in early '14.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Greff with JPMorgan.
Joseph Greff - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Earlier, you had mentioned that the corporate group pace is up meaningfully more than the overall pace. Can you talk about that part of the business? What percentage does the corporate group make of the total group? And then how does the profile of that business look when you take into consideration non-room revenue spend?
Arne M. Sorenson
Yes, I think -- I don't -- you stump me, Joe. I don't know precisely the mix between corporate group and noncorporate group in our group measures. I would think it's material but probably less than 1/2, although I'm not positive about that. And we will check that instinct to see whether or not it's right and reach out to you and come back with it. I think when we look at '14, and I'm not sure if this totally answers your question, but if we look at sort of budgeted expectations for food and beverage and non-rooms revenue, we would think that they will grow a bit faster than REVPAR but not dramatically so. A few tenths of a percent, something in that order of magnitude.
Joseph Greff - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Great. And then back to the 4% to 6% North America REVPAR growth guidance for the year. When you break that between the full -- break that out between full service and select service, is the select-service hotel underperforming the full service?
Arne M. Sorenson
I don't think -- I'm going to quibble with you a little bit about underperforming. I don't think that, that's necessarily a fair characterization because, obviously, the REVPAR index is the single best indication of how well our hotels are performing compared to market. And having said that, based on distribution, based on segment, I would think that full service, on average, will be better than limited service. Part of that is geographic distribution, part of that is group strengths. I think when you get to Residence Inn, particularly with its longer-stay dynamic, we'll probably see Residence Inn towards the bottom end of our REVPAR numbers for the year. But you've got brands like Courtyard, which is also limited service. Courtyard managed portfolio is doing fabulously well as '13 ended. I think a lot of that is the reinvention of lobbies, particularly in that brand. And we expect that, that brand will continue its very strong momentum in '14 and continue to take share, and probably will put reasonably good REVPAR numbers on the books for it. I don't think there'll be a dramatic difference between full service and limited service when all is said and done.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.
Robin M. Farley - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
It looks like, in 2013, the percent of hotels paying incentive management fees accelerated a little bit from the increase in terms of the 6 percentage points of hotels, a little bit of acceleration from the 2 years prior. How do you see that in 2014 with another 5% REVPAR increase?
Carl T. Berquist
Sure. Just remind people, the numbers in the fourth quarter, 32% of our hotels were paying incentive fees as compared to 30% the year earlier, and for the full year was about 39% were paying incentive fees compared to about 32%, 33% in the year earlier. I think one of the things we saw in the fourth quarter is because of Asia moderating and the turmoil in the Middle East, most of our incentive fees came from the U.S., which was up pretty dramatically, the incentive fees. I think it was in the 30s. It was very high. I think as you look out into '14 and '15, obviously, as the international markets start coming back, Asia Pacific, Middle East settles down, we would expect those to continue to grow and generate incentive fees. In the U.S., though, I think we're still a little bit away from the limited-service hotels paying incentive fees or other full-service hotels that aren't paying today to start paying. And even if they did, it would be minor amounts. It wouldn't be major amounts coming on. So I think you'll see continued growth. I think we're expecting low double-digit incentive fee growth, and it will come from a combination of those that are paying today domestically, growing as margins grow and REVPAR grows and then more and more of the international coming back online, as well as those that are paying, paying more.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Nikhil Bhalla with FBR.
Nikhil Bhalla - FBR Capital Markets & Co., Research Division
Just a question on the brand strategy that you’re following with Protea and MOXY last year. Could you give some sense of what you're thinking for Asia? Are you looking for another brand there? Or are you trying to just grow brands right now in different continents, specific to those continents? Just any color.
Arne M. Sorenson
Yes, the -- it's a good question. We've obviously been very active in the last 3 or 4 years with new brand launches and new platforms for growth. They've each got a story, and I'm not sure that they necessarily can be simplified into one story for each of those brands. So Protea, the most recent, not even yet closed, is really a -- fundamentally about geography, about growing middle class and growing travel trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the opportunity with the team at Protea to do a deal that brought us good existing distribution with a good brand and a great leadership team, a great team of associates in that market that will help us grow, not only the brands that they've historically been focused on, but our brands as well, which are already many of them in the pipeline but I think these folks will help us. And we think of that as probably more of a play on Africa than we do as something that started in the abstract as an effort to add another brand in that market. You look at MOXY in Europe, and in some respects, that too, was opportunistic in the sense that with Inter IKEA, a real estate portfolio and one of our good franchise partners in Europe, we had been in discussions for a period of time about the need for the industry to reinvent the economy space in Europe, which was not a very appealing tale, and willingness on their part to put in a huge amount of capital to invest and to grow a new brand. And that looked like a great place for us to move going forward. When you move to Asia and ask the question that you've asked, I think we would say that we are still growing relatively few of the brands that we have in our portfolio. We've talked over the course of the last year or so about opening Fairfield in India. We did this year in the fourth quarter in Bangalore or maybe the third quarter, I don't remember precisely the opening date. And we've got another 10 or so Fairfields, maybe 15, that are in the development pipeline in India. That's a brand-new brand for that market. In some respects, it is not all that significant that we use the same word, Fairfield, in the United States because it will be overwhelmingly a local brand, and it could have a different name and it probably wouldn't mean that much to us one way or another. You go to China where the growth engine is continuing to accelerate for us. And we're really only growing at the top end, so that's Ritz-Carlton, JW Marriott, Marriott Renaissance and some Courtyards. None of our limited-service brands are really moving, other than Courtyard. And the Courtyards there are full-service hotels; they're big hotels that I think, if they were here, probably would look like a full-service Marriott to many of us. I think in the years ahead, we're hopeful that in China and other places of the Asia Pacific market, we will see opportunities to grow in sort of the moderate-tier market. Whether we do that with Fairfield or with MOXY or with other brands that are already within our portfolio or we add additional brands, only time will tell. There is a simplicity in doing the growth with the brands we already have, which is an advantage and an attraction to that. But we're also quite prepared when opportunities arise, whether it's through the deal market or in some other way, to work with our partners to add new brands if we think we can grow materially in those new platforms. That's a long answer that probably was not quite what you expected but it's a continuing source of conversation here.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Thomas Allen with Morgan Stanley.
Thomas Allen - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
On the EDITION sales and the binding agreements, did those go through a bidding process? And if so, what kind of other counterparties were there?
Arne M. Sorenson
We had a form of bidding process, yes. We had a...
Carl T. Berquist
We went through that straight with a book and...
Arne M. Sorenson
We had a broker and we had a couple of other players. We actually had a fairly long list that submitted bids on London. We had a few that were aggressive about trying to do something with the portfolio as a whole. It shouldn't surprise any of you that selling London alone would have been much easier because that hotel was very close to opening, and in fact, did open roughly the 1st of September. When you get to Miami and New York, New York EDITION won't open until the first quarter of '15 is our guess as we sit here. And for those of you in New York, you know what it looks like with the elevators on the outside of the building today and scaffolding all around. That becomes a harder task. And I think as we looked at it, we knew we had an option to wait, finish construction and put them on the market where they were open and performing. We're very optimistic about the way these assets will perform. They'll be great hotels. And probably get more on the sale of that, but we would compromise something on the near-term certainty. And again, as I said in the prepared remarks, we're not -- we are obviously interested in getting a fulsome price for these assets after we've taken risk to them, but we're really not in the business of saying, "All right, let's just roll this for another year or 2 or 3 and see whether or not we had timed the economic cycle well and the capital cycle well for real estate investing and make some profit, which would come through our P&L in one lumpy number that nobody will probably give us credit for anyway." So we think we're much better off doing the kind of deal that we've done now with ADIA. We're excited about them. They are already very big partners of ours, and they've got a passion for this brand and we think it will be a great partnership. And we think they will be extremely successful with the investment that they're making as well, which is good for us.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.
Charles Patrick Scholes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division
Just a little bit of a follow-up question on the asset sales. Can you just review again exactly what the timing is on all of the ones that you have, what you've completed, what you have coming up and, as well and more importantly, the timing of and amount of the expected proceeds for EDITION? And I think you have one in Barcelona that you've recently sold.
Carl T. Berquist
Right. We've closed on that Barcelona sale. That closed at the end of January and so that one's done.
Charles Patrick Scholes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc., Research Division
How much was that?
Carl T. Berquist
We netted about $60 million. And then London's already closed. We netted around $240 million. Miami will close in late '14. That's the hotel part, about $230 million, give or take. And then New York, as Arne said, will be first quarter of '15, and that will be the rest, about $350 million.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.
Felicia R. Hendrix - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Carl, your commentary on the group booking pace, does that include the new -- the D.C. convention hotel?
Carl T. Berquist
No, it would've been just our comp hotels, comparable hotels, so that wouldn't have been a comp hotel.
Felicia R. Hendrix - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Okay, that's very helpful. And then given the strong headline growth we're seeing in Europe and REVPAR in Europe, your European REVPAR guidance just seemed a bit conservative. Just wondering if you could touch upon that.
Arne M. Sorenson
Well, we had, last year in Europe, full year, 1.5% REVPAR growth. Europe, there are places of significantly greater optimism today than a year ago, and hopefully that will come through. U.K. would probably be among those markets. But I actually think the 3-ish percent is about the right kind of expectation to have. If we do better than that, that would be great. Among other markets, I think you've got places like Paris, which are lagging. You've got Istanbul, which had a rough second half in '13 and we'll have to see how Istanbul performs. I think the political controversy there has had some impact on the market. And so let's see how it develops. Hopefully, you're right and we come back and say we were conservative about that. But I would be cautious about being too bullish on Europe before we've got a little bit more evidence to support that bullishness.
Felicia R. Hendrix - Barclays Capital, Research Division
Okay, that's really helpful. Last thing. Carl, you had mentioned something about the incentives that you have to give developers. Can you just quickly talk about the promotional environment that you are seeing as you're signing contracts?
Carl T. Berquist
Sure. The incentives I was referring to is for our associates, the bonuses they get for bringing in a -- the deals and getting the deals signed, not third-party incentives.
Felicia R. Hendrix - Barclays Capital, Research Division
But are you seeing -- what is the promotional environment look like as you're trying to attract deals?
Carl T. Berquist
I think it's great. Our folks are well networked around the world with all the major developers. And in the U.S., we have a great team that's been out -- across the world, a great team. And they've been working with these people for years. We've made some investments in new offices, especially in China and Asia Pacific, and they continue to do well. The other thing is, is that our brands are very strong. So our brands are sought after by developers. They can get them financed and right now, that's pretty important. And with a Courtyard in the U.S. or a Residence Inn, the banks know them, and they can get them financed pretty easy on the flex service. Same with our full-service brands outside the U.S.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of David Loeb with Baird.
David Loeb - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division
On the Renaissance Barcelona, that was a bit of a surprise to us. We did not realize there was that kind of value embedded in that asset. Are there others in the leased portfolio or in the owned portfolio that you see substantial value in or that you might look to monetize over the next year or 2?
Arne M. Sorenson
The 4 hotels Carl just went through are the ones with -- the only ones you should be paying any attention to, the 3 EDITIONS and the Barcelona Renaissance. We've got a couple of European Courtyards. The most valuable might be worth $20 million to $30 million, something like that. And hopefully, we'll announce the sale of 1 or 2 of those this year too, but they're not very significant.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Ian Rennardson with Jefferies.
Ian Rennardson - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
It looks like your REVPAR in this quarter was 6% [ph], and I'm wondering what was [indiscernible] between occupancy and price. And as occupancy peaks, why isn't the industry able to put [ph] through better pricing than it does? It seems to me that pricing is starting to [indiscernible] starting to come off. [indiscernible] thought on that?
Arne M. Sorenson
Ian, I don't know what there was in your telephone connection, but you sounded vaguely Martian, a sort of pulsing in your words, and I'll confess we didn't get it all. But it sounded like you were focused on driving rate and rate in occupancy contribution to total REVPAR mix...
Laura E. Paugh
For '14.
Arne M. Sorenson
For '14. And I don't know, I think what we'll see in '14 is a continued shift towards a higher percentage of total REVPAR growth being driven by rate. I think in retrospect, we were probably a bit surprised how well occupancy continued to grow in '13 and how much of the REVPAR was driven by the occupancy contribution. And you can obviously see that in the schedules to our press release and do your own math there or see it in Smith Travel. We do see, though, demand continuing to build, and as a consequence, I suspect occupancy will continue to build in 2014. But hopefully, we'll see better pricing power as the year goes along.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Smedes Rose with Evercore.
Smedes Rose - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division
I wanted to ask you, with the group having lagged so far in this recovery, and that there was a suggestion for a while that the composition of groups had changed and the way that corporate America does groups has changed. Now that you're seeing a more sustained recovery and it sounds like you're pleased with what you're seeing with the outer years beyond 2014, do you see it more or less in line with what you've seen in previous cycles, or are you seeing kind of the composition of group change?
Arne M. Sorenson
I think nothing stays the same forever, so don't hear us as saying that this is exactly like prior recoveries. But I think it's more like prior recoveries than it's not. Group always lags. It lags to our benefit, to the benefit of group hotels when business -- trends in business is declining, and it lags on the recovery to transient businesses. Transient business comes back more than group. And I think it's done it in a very similar way now. I think when you look at corporate, corporate is probably more similar in its recovery pattern to prior economic cycles. I think it's maybe been a little bit more muted, just as REVPAR as a whole has been a little bit more muted in this recovery compared to prior recoveries because the economy hasn't come back as strongly as it has in prior economies. So a number of you noticed this -- noted this in your own reports, but you look at growth in the middle of the last decade, and we had a number of years where REVPAR for the industry was growing in the 7% to 10% range. And we really haven't seen those kinds of numbers in most of these years. We've been more in the 5% to 7% range, I think. And we, as a consequence, may get more years in this recovery, which would be a great thing. But I think that, that same more modest REVPAR growth has some impact to the speed that group comes back with. Having said that, I think when you look over a 20-year period of time, what we see is a relative growth in leisure at the expense of both corporate, transient and group. And I suspect we'll see those trends continuing. I think part of that is -- these are mostly U.S.-centric comments, but I think a bit of that is about the aging of the baby boomers, who will increasingly have time to go with resources to enable leisure travel. I think part of that is about travel trends broadly. There's a growing group of people around the world who want to see the world, and they want to see that, including with their own dollars for leisure travel. And I suspect we'll see that continue, and so that I -- that 10 years from now, as we're looking at the data, we'll probably see that leisure is a few points more of the total mix in the industry and in our hotels, and that will come, to some extent, out of group. But I think those are modest and very long-term changes. And I don't subscribe to the notion that there is a sort of permanent change, that group is down and out and is never coming back.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.
Shaun C. Kelley - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division
So Arne, last quarter, you talked a little bit about operating leverage and this being a focus going forward. And I think we see a piece of that obviously, in the SG&A guidance. But as we look back at this past year and we kind of think about buckets of where you spend some of the increase in SG&A, can you just walk us through a little bit about how you prioritize some of that increase when you think about opportunities, both new development, some of the new brands that you guys obviously added, some of the one-time costs and maybe technology expenses? And then as we look forward into the guidance, which ones of those buckets do you think maybe start to either roll off or become a little bit lower, just as we think about that concept?
Arne M. Sorenson
Yes, that's a fair question. I'm not going to give you a too data rich an answer because -- maybe because I'll get the data wrong. You've got a number of buckets, though. One is noise, and noise did impact us last year meaningfully, and that noise can range from a lawsuit that we paid off in the fourth quarter that cost us $6 million or $7 million, something like that, and is a frustration point. There's nothing about it, which is interesting or potentially recurring to the write-off of investments we've made in management contracts in prior years that -- either for hotels that we had lost or frequently for hotels that converted to franchise or were subject to a brand-new management agreement, and the accounting rules essentially preclude us from transferring the balance sheet balance to that new contract and instead require us to write it off. And so we've got a number of bits of that, and those can be frustrating. And those numbers actually were fairly big, some number of tens of millions of dollars when you look at full year 2013, but are not likely to be recurring, at least on any individual circumstance. The second category of spending would be building up really our leadership teams around the globe to run our businesses. And we've talked about this before, but we have been in a multiyear transition of resources and decision-making and authority from Bethesda to independent operating divisions that are spread around the world. We think it will make us better. We think it will make us faster. We think it will cause us to grow better in those markets. And at the same time, there's some cost implications associated with it. And then I think the third -- and by the way, that category of growth should start to taper. So as we get to the point where we've got the leadership teams there, and I think we are most of the way there, we should see that the growth that we need to incur in spending in those markets should start to look more normal. And then the last thing is we've talked about the brands that we've added. We've also talked about the 67,000 rooms we signed last year. We've put a lot of resources in new growth platforms, new developers that are on our team to make sure we've got the resources to go out and seize the opportunities that are available. And so when you launch an EDITION brand or a MOXY brand or AC Hotels in the United States or Protea, all of these things come with a need to do some things, like new GDS codes for new brands, which are like a $1 million a pop, something like that, and they run straight through the P&L; or brand strategies and articulation of how these brands are going to be distinct; to preopening and some marketing efforts to get these brands familiar with customers. And I suspect we will see the dollars we spend on developers remain fairly steady and grow at a sort of normal rate. If we don't add new brands in the next few years, I think we'll see that we get a benefit from that. And in fact, we don't need to keep spending to -- once the brands get launched, they tend to pay for themselves in a way. The distribution is the primary -- the additional distribution is the primary way of marketing those brands, and marketing dollars are available from the hotels. And so there will be less incremental dollars needed for those brands, which we've already launched. We're obviously not predicting that we're going to be launching any new brands going forward, so I suspect the best set of expectations is we'll see some of that spending come down.
Shaun C. Kelley - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division
That's really helpful. And I guess just my follow-up would be the -- the net unit growth had been, I think, kind of translates or comes out of this, obviously picked up a lot in terms of your outlook. How many years do you think this is sustainable given -- I mean, if you signed a lot of rooms even late in 2013, given the lead times here, it would actually seem to imply that 2015 and 2016 could actually be even better years on a net growth perspective. But how would you think about that without maybe -- without putting too much in -- stealing too much from your Analyst Day in September?
Arne M. Sorenson
Well, I mean, I -- the 67,000 rooms we signed in 2013 will -- and then 195,000 rooms we've got in the pipeline, they portend a fabulous few years ahead of us. And obviously, you can't take anything for granted, but I suspect there's a lot of good news that's built into those numbers, which will help our model and earnings growth and cash flow growth and all the rest of it in the relatively near term. I think when you look longer term than that and you look at the global travel dynamics, you look at our small share of the industry outside the United States, it's a big world out there, and we've got lots and lots of growth available for us in the decades to come. I made some comments about U.S. growth in the prepared remarks. I've been at Marriott now 17 years, and for the entire 17 years, we have been asked and we have asked ourselves, "Can we continue to grow in the United States? Are we getting to a point where we've got too much market share?" And every year, we prove that there is more growth available to us in the United States. And we feel that with more confidence today than probably at any time over those last 17 years. I think when you look at AC and the way that, that's moving, you look at the way the limited-service brands have rebuilt their strength, you look at the response that we're getting in the secondary and tertiary markets to limited-service-brand growth in the United States, which is a place where we haven't focused, where some of our competitors have in the decades of the past, I think we've got great years of growth in the United States ahead of us as well.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.
Robin M. Farley - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Just a follow-up question. You gave some of the data about the pipeline basically doubling in Q4, the number of rooms from what was signed in the first 3 quarters. I'm just curious if there was a particular incentive that you put out there, that you wanted those to close by year end or just how that timing came into place?
Arne M. Sorenson
We have -- obviously, we're very deliberate about incentives, but there was nothing unique about the fourth quarter.
Carl T. Berquist
There was nothing.
Arne M. Sorenson
So we didn't pull the whole team together and say, "We want to prove to everybody that we can make the fourth quarter of 2013 spectacular." In fact, we were fairly -- I think when we sat here a quarter ago, we would have guessed that we would do 60,000 rooms or some number like that. And so I think the positive surprise was probably mostly driven by the state of the economy, availability of financing and the typical year-end drive to get deals done. And so it was all good, but not a particularly manipulated result, if that's sort of what you're asking.
Robin M. Farley - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
And I wouldn't have used the word manipulated, but just incentivized, but that's helpful color.
Operator
And it appears that we have no further questions at this time.
Arne M. Sorenson
All right. Well, thank you all very much for your time and participation this morning. I'm sure you can get a sense for our pleasure with the 2013 results and optimism about the future. So look forward to welcoming you in our hotels. Get out and travel.
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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Marriott International (MAR) Q4 2013 Earnings Call February 20, 2014 10:00 AM ET

Operator

Good morning. My name is Jackie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Marriott International's Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Arne Sorenson, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Arne M. Sorenson - Chief Executive Officer, President, Director and Member of Committee for Excellence
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2013 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Carl Berquist, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

As always, before we get into the discussion of our results, let me first remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night, along with our comments today, are effective only today, February 20, 2014, and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks on our website at www.marriott.com/investor.

Just last month, I attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Each year, Davos offers an opportunity to explore the important macro trends around the world: the emergence of the middle class in Asia and Africa, new technology and its impact on employment, prospects for global economic growth. These are all top-of-mind issues for us, as both global travel and our pipeline accelerates around the world.

We were delighted while in Davos to announce our definitive agreement to purchase Protea Hotels, a brand that will allow us to leap ahead in both distribution and development in Africa. This transaction remains on track and should close in early April.

2013 was a great year. We saw strengthening demand, high occupancies, record fees and the largest new room signing year in the company's history, signing more than a deal a day. We are encouraged by our record 67,000 signed rooms in 2013; a significant growth in our hotel development pipeline, reaching 195,000 rooms; and the success we've had with asset sales.

To date, in 2014, we've completed the sale of our London EDITION hotel and our Renaissance hotel in Barcelona and have signed contracts for the sale of the New York EDITION and the Miami South Beach EDITION.

In North America, we opened more than 15,000 rooms in 2013. That is 1 out of every 5 new rooms added in the U.S. industry. Our North American development team signed deals for nearly 34,000 rooms during the year and welcomed 90 new owners and operators to our North American system.

Many are in new markets. In fact, over 70% of the hotels in our North American pipeline are outside the top 25 U.S. MSAs. U.S. lodging industry supply growth was less than 1% in 2013, and STR expects industry supply to increase only 1.2% in 2014, well below the 4% we saw in 1999.

Our 2013 pipeline growth is less a sign of significant new supply and more a sign of our growing market share. We continue to believe we are quite early in this development cycle and don't see U.S. oversupply in the near term.

We added a new brand platform to our Americas region in 2013, AC Hotels, imported from Spain. The first U.S. AC Hotel should open in early 2015. We already have 22 projects in our Americas pipeline for this fast-growing brand and another 27 projects in early discussion.

•Full year diluted EPS totaled $2.00, a 16 percent increase over prior year results. Excluding the $0.08 per share Courtyard joint venture gain in 2012, diluted EPS grew 22 percent year-over-year;

•North American comparable company-operated REVPAR rose 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter and 5.4 percent for full year 2013;

•On a constant dollar basis, worldwide comparable systemwide REVPAR rose 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter and 4.6 percent for full year 2013;

•Comparable company-operated house profit margins increased 130 basis points in North America and 90 basis points worldwide for the full year;

•At year-end, the company's worldwide development pipeline increased to over 195,000 rooms, including nearly 30,000 rooms approved, but not yet subject to signed contracts;

•Nearly 26,000 rooms were added in 2013. In the fourth quarter alone, nearly 7,700 rooms were added, including over 3,900 rooms in international markets;

•The company signed a record 67,000 rooms in 2013;

•For full year 2013, Marriott repurchased 20.0 million shares for $829 million including 4.4 million shares for $200 million in the fourth quarter;

•For full year 2014, Marriott expects North American and worldwide Systemwide constant dollar REVPAR to increase 4 to 6 percent;

•Return on invested capital totaled 32 percent in 2013.

Marriott International, Inc. /quotes/zigman/23609459/delayed/quotes/nls/mar MAR +0.02% today reported fourth quarter and full year 2013 results. Due to the company's change in the fiscal calendar beginning in 2013, the fourth quarter of 2013 reflects the period from October 1, 2013 through December 31, 2013 (92 days) compared to the 2012 fourth quarter, which reflects the period from September 8, 2012 through December 28, 2012 (112 days). Full year 2013 reflects the period from December 29, 2012 through December 31, 2013 (368 days) compared to full year 2012, which reflects the period from December 31, 2011 through December 28, 2012 (364 days). Prior year results have not been restated for the change in fiscal calendar, although revenue per available room (REVPAR), occupancy and average daily rate statistics are reported for calendar quarters for purposes of comparability

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Long Term Analyst Buy List for 2014 $HSY $MAR $VZ $ZTS



Oppenheimer Upgrades Nordson

Nordson Corp (NDSN) was upgraded to “Outperform” from “Perform” at Oppenheimer as the analyst firm sees future growth due to NDSN’s increased investments. Oppenheimer has a price target of $85 on Nordson, suggesting that the stock will rise 21%. NDSN has a dividend yield of 1.03%.

EOG Resources Gets Numbers Raised at UBS

UBS raised its price target and estimates on EOG Resources (EOG) due to EOG raising its volume guidance. UBS now has a price target of $203 on EOG, suggesting a 25% upside to the stock’s current price. EOG has a yield of 0.42%.

Credit Suisse Ups PT on Hershey

Hershey (HSY) had its price target raised to $117 at Credit Suisse. The ratings firm believes that Hershey will continue to deliver consistent growth globally. The new PT suggests that HSY’s stock price will rise 8%. HYS has a yield of 1.8%.

BMO Boosts Numbers of Marriott

Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) had its estimates and price target raised at BMO Capital. BMO believes that MAR’s share buyback will boost the company’s stock price and earnings. MAR has a price target of $57, suggesting that its stock will rise by 6.6%. “Market Perform”-rated Marriott has a dividend yield of 1.27%.

Verizon Sees Moves at Two Firms

Verizon (VZ) had its price target cut at Credit Suisse and was added to the US 1 List at BofA/Merrill Lynch. Credit Suisse cut VZ’s PT to $52 due to VZ seeing weaker growth. The new Pt suggests a 12% upside to the stock’s current price.

BofA/Merrill Lynch moved VZ to its US 1 List due to VZ’s guidance and attractive valuation. The firm has a price target of $55 of Verizon, suggesting a 19% upside to the stock’s current price. VZ has a dividend yield of 4.59%.

Zoetis Gets Numbers Cut at Jefferies

Jefferies cut the price target and estimates on Zoetis Inc (ZTS) due to the company’s 2014 guidance and weak live stock market. Jefferies now sees ZTS stock reaching $37, suggesting a 25% upside to the stock’s current price. ZTS has a dividend yield of 0.97%

Saturday, June 8, 2013

Watch Top Stock Picks Fast Money, June 9, 2013 Buy Or Sell ? RT $MAR $GOOG $SRI $TSLA

in times square, i'm melissa lee. our traders are pete najarian, karen finerman and the biggest stories tonight and that is technology. it is the sector that has been gaining during the great rotation away from the yield payers over the past couple of months. but this might be a big red flag right now. according to bank of america, hedge funds are making their biggest bet on tech since 2000. this chart showing the speculative long positions in the nasdaq 100. so is this a sign you should be selling tech right now? let's turn to the traders here. guy adami, what do you say? i don't think so. obviously, i understand we're trying to make with the 2000 thing. that wound up being the top. but no, i don't think so. and what makes me even happier today is sort of a market agnostic is the fact we trade down to the 1620 level that we flagged last week, and we reversed rather strongly to 17 or 18 handles. that's very good. i think the next couple dives should be up days. i still think we have to get through that may 22nd level, that reversal from back then. but i think the markets technically has done everything right if you want to remain bullish. no, i don't think so that's a sign to get out of your technology. so friday could have been a bookmark day. friday was a bookmark day. today it did everything they needed to do. got to hold 1620. it did. look at the bounce. a couple of nice days in store for you. pete najarian, are you bullish on technology here? aim. i think there are multiple names you would want to be a part of your portfolio right now when you're looking around. i think some of those have already performed, but there is plenty of upside remaining. intel. intel has already had a great performance this year. but thing is a lot more in front of them. they are very much like best buy, where everybody said they were dead. they were dead because they were tied to the pc market. and now people are starting to understand that they're doing what everybody said they needed to start to get themselves into. and because of the cap ex, they've been able to buy back shares but get themselves into the mobile space extremely fast. why does it not bother you that hedge funds are piling into technology at this point? isn't that a red flag at all? it doesn't bother me at all. it doesn't bother you? it does not bother me. i look at the fundamentals right now of some of these areas. when you look at utilities, that didn't make as much sense, because fundamentally, they were in front of themselves when you look at the pe levels. microsoft, cisco, many of these names right now, these are not overbought names. it's very hard to say when it's overbought. right. because you're buying growth in that whole space. right. it's not the same as when you're looking at the utility space. when you say does it make you nervous? no, because you have a momentum trade on. that could push it a lot higher with strictly momentum. . that would make you nervous, i would think. how could it not make you nervous. that seems a little counterintuitive. it has been for the last couple of months. a lot of the shorts have been carried out, betting against momentum. so it's not karen's strategy. that's something that she would not invest. in but for people who are investing in the momentum trade, there is a lot more legs to it. until there is not. right. for me, the economic data has become more and more important. and today we had a very mixed bag. the vehicle sales were really good. so that was good. then we had the ism, which wasn't as good. so i think that, you know, where the market seems to like this perfect stagnation that we're in, you know, is good news bad news or i don't know, middle of the road, stagnation is maybe our best news. right. let's stick with technology here and talk about one of the big movers in today's session. that is microsoft spiking to a 5 1/2 year high on reports the company could be heading for a major restructuring. so is this a shake-up coming for microsoft? let's welcome back the head of tejano research at nomura. this is from an article that came out overnight today about this possible internal restructuring at microsoft. and you also wrote about a possible shake-up within the company. do these two stories marry up? they're two parallel developments i think. last fall, ballmer announced that he was going to move into devices and service. so that's what he is referring to at all things digital. and they have a conference going on this week. so tomorrow i think they'll announce a lot more of move of server and tools business to the cloud. you've seen office 365 moving to the cloud. they say it's a billion dollar business. it's a billion dollar run rate. and also azure server and tools products in the cloud approaching a little over a billion dollar run rate right now. now that's small. that's 5% of the business. but directionally, i think they're going to make some announcements to align internally and focus the business and the by model around cloud. we're seeing the same thing at oracle. we're seeing the same thing at sap. anyone focused on premise is in the wrong direction. they're going on on premise for a long time. but all the growth is coming from the cloud. microsoft is talking about how they position better for the cloud there is another reorganization, but there is another issue that is going on. and that's something that value act i think is going to bring to the forefront this summer as they ask for -- likely will ask for a board seat. they'll probably have to go through a proxy process which means it's going to become very public. i would think that's all good for the stock. they're going to be talking about how do you increase shareholder value. ballmer is going to try to convince investors, no we're already doing a lot of stuff. we're moving to the cloud. you were were on with mel and jim in the morning show a couple of years ago. you talked about microsoft going towards ese levels, here we are now. you mentioned a lot of the move we have seen is on the back of that. what when does that become commoditized if ever? that's a good question. their protester competition in the cloud is amazon. microsoft and amazon have cut prices against each other about 20 times already. that's a commoditizing business if you're just delivering compute capacity in the cloud as a service. so for microsoft, it's going to be important that they deliver higher end software as a service, not just the infrastructure and compute capacity as a system. i think that it's very unclear where we're headed. the business model implications are unclear. it's good in that you have to go there. that's where all the growth circumstances don't they run into google if they're offering that? is that really google's stronghold? it's more amazon, but google is in that business as well, yeah. you have to differentiate. fortunately, a lot of enterprises run microsoft to run outlook. they run sequel server database. so to the degree that that same infrastructure is offered to you in the cloud as you're already running, there is extra value assigned to it. so hopefully you can drive above average margins. just going back to the activism for a minute. the best defense against activism is stock price appreciation, which since vault act has taken their take stake have seen dramatically up day. if i sound bitter, it's because i am bitter. but given the insider ownership, gates ballmer together own or 9%. right. the stock has improved dramatically. how -- i think it's going to be difficult. how do you think they're going to be able to do that? and what does one seat get them? one seat gets you an inside voice so you can act more constructively with the independent directors to try to ct change. bill gates and steve ballmer collectively own just under 9% of the company. if you look at the next ten shareholders, it's 25% of the vote. you need 50% of the voting shares to win. and that would involve another 70 shareholders. so you raise a really good issue, which is historically, you probably wouldn't have that much and difficulty getting that many shareholders to vote in your favor. the better the stock done, ironically, the more it works against value act in getting all the shareholders to go along. but they haven't really gone public with their strategy in terms of how you enhance your shareholder value. so to the degree that it's already in the stock, by the time the shareholder vote comes up in november, you raise a good point, which is well, maybe there is not such a pressing need to effect change how much of all these possibilities in terms of realigning the business mobil, of value act getting a board seattle, how much of that is in the stock at this point? i think probably very low 30s on fundamentals. i think a lot of what we're seeing at 35 and change is the anticipation that something is likely to happen here to increase shareholder value. it sounds like it would be a sell now then. i think on fundamentals you find the stock pretty uninteresting right now. maybe stay around for the move to the cloud and the view that maybe windows 8.1 helps, and this chip from intel gives you longer battery life. but it's probably a tougher call at this price on ndamentals. so i think a lot of it from this point forward is going to have to come on increased shareholder value. so on a fundamental basis, if one were to rotate out of this stock, what should they within your universe rotate into? the capital spending environment is really challenged right now. business is still getting done. we just finished the may quarter for oracle and a few other companies. so we're eager over the next couple days to see how that went. but it's harder getting big deals done. but deals are still getting done. so my suspicion is oracle probably was okay for the quarter. sap is -- they have a really tough quarter. but it's interesting today. almost my entire screen of the momentum names, the sas names was down and down hard. the stocks that were up, microsoft, oracle, sap. the three big cap names that are maybe a little more defensive. i think we're seeing investors even though the fundamentals are still kind of dicey in the big cap names, it's probably safer as a place to be in urn oo uncertain times. thanks for coming by. great to see you. in terms of pete the options in some of these big cap names, do you see the momentum continuing? yes. we've seen nothing but people coming after these names, looking even higher, rick, when you're looking across the intels of the world, microsoft, oracle. you see people chasing some of the names. some of the names have underperformed, so you would think they may start to play catch-up. hewlett-packard we're seeing more and more. so in the big cap names to your point, the really big cap names, not necessarily the thrill a minute names, the apples of the world right now, we're seeing the big cap names really start to get a little more momentum to the upside. karen, in terms of your view on some of the big cap names, what would you look at? oracle, actually. as i said, it's priced very similarly to microsoft. but i think their cloud version is further along. before the break, some of the after hours movers. canadian pacific railways down 3% after news that the pershing square plans to sell to 7 million common shares, the sales will begin on or after june 10th. saic lowered extended trade. the company missing on the bottom line, but beat slightly on the top line revenues coming in at $2.7 billion versus the expected 2.6 billion. up next, a check on what was just last week america's new favorite car stock. could it now be the ultimate short? we are talking tesla straight ahead. plus, shares of best buy flying high. the second best performer in the s&p 500 has jumped over 130%. so why is one firm saying now is the time to buy and calling the stock a top pick in the space? we've got the analyst behind that call, and that t. stay tuned. it doesn't. that's crazy. we're all totally different. ishares core. etf building blocks for your personalized portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. people question: how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed: the official retirement age. ♪♪ ♪♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪♪ ♪♪ today's top three trades, the most notable moves on the day. we kick it off with bristol-myers. a 52-week high in today's session, but it did get slapped with a sell rating. we'll delve deep were barbara ryan. but in the meantime, pete, give us your take. you have liked this stock for a long time. love this name and have loved it for a long time. goldman sachs has been one of the names that has been really on this. the stock was underneath $40 back then. it got all the way up and is pushing toward the $50 level. it did pull off today after that downgrade. but when you look at the name and you rook at what they were able to present, they are one of the folks oue that give a lot of data going into this meeting about what they have got in the pipeline that has been a story about pipeline and big pharma. that's where the growth is going to come. zynga getting whack on news of cost reductions. the cutbacks are expected to save the social gaming media company between 70 and $80 million. grasso? the stock price tells it all. if you look at the chart, it's been straight down. although what is the risk reward to shorting a stock that trades around $3 right now? not much. you don't want to be a short seller here. too much risk to the upside. i wouldn't be a buyer until it holds $5. and rounding out the top three touched a 52-week high. soda from 100 to 55. guy? the value, it sounds crazy. but 22 times forward earnings, it's not as ridiculous as you might think. this stock obviously there is a short interest there. people betting against it. while it's hard for me to get on board after a day like today. but there still appears to be some upside left in sodastream here. time to check in on one big box retailer that has seen pretty big gains. shares of best buy up nearly 134% this year alone. and it could be poised to move even higher. upgrading best buy. david mcgee, the analyst behind the report joins us on the fast line. david, it's always great to speak with you. thank you. good afternoon. in terms of this move, isn't it difficult to upgrade a stock that has already been up 134% year to date? you know, it's not ea upgrade a stock with this kind of move. but when you see the valuation, it's still not expensive and all the things this company is doing to become more relevant to the customers. we think it's got a major second leg ahead of it here. in terms of the valuation, you pointed out in your note the forward pe is still 11 times which is above the historical mid teen highs. i'm wondering whether it is a different environment for best buy with amazon and walmart in the fray. well, it's been, you know, to your point, a number of years since they got to the low to mid teens. but at the same time, you know, we went through a recession. they had gone through some critical competition with some of the online players. at this point, though, they get a chance to sort of regain their relevancy to customers and be best of breed in this space. we don't think it's unreasonable to expect low to mid teens again. it's karen. let me ask. i see you have a $35 target. what is the earnings and the multiples to get you there? that's looking out to 2015, karen, calendar 2015. and assuming this company can do around 28524 year and get some sort of a low teens multiple on that earnings space. that gets me to $35. david, embedded in this call, is it a bullish housing call? i'm sure you have to take that into consideration. it is. unately, we're not seeing much in terms of new tv technology this year. the product pipeline is still sort of soft. but at the same time, if housing continues to improve, that's going to pull along this sector as people upgrade tvs or add tvs when they buy new homes. that's a piece late this year into next year. thanks for joining us. appreciate your time. david magee of suntrust, the analyst who upgraded best buy in today's session. do you buy what david is selling, pete, in terms of having to return this notion that it will return to historical valuations to the mid teens? i do. today. you do? why? well, part of the problem for a while when we were also bearish on this company is they were doing absolutely nothing to defend themselves against the amazons of the world. i think they actually finally took that head on. they tried this price match. they got more involved on the online world to get more competitive. they have done everything we talked about. the one thing left is to shrink some of the stores down. they have so much retail space. but they have the samsung idea of coming within a store within a store. there are reasons to be very optimistic going forward 2014. would you be a buyer? i've always had a kind reflection on best buy. i always thought they could survive. i always thought you don't go in there just to use as a showroom because there are certain things you only want to buy there. you want to look at the tvs. you don't want to order them from amazon. you want to go, in you take a look and then you go to amazon. and then you feel bad. i don't feel bad. i feel like you want to talk to the gentleman that is going to be putting it in your house. even though they have the white glove service at amazon, i want to see the person that is actually going to be in the home with my four children. you go to best buy, you check everything out. i go whoever has the best value. tough girl. why is not? you go on amazon and ordering four service guys to come to your house for no reason, that's a problem. big movers of the section. a drop down 5%. this got a downgrade from morgan stanley. you talk about the forward product cycle not very exciting. i think that's starting to get priced into the stock. when you look at the forward valuations, i think it's time. it's had a very difficult first part. i think the second part is next stronger. guy? i'll take it. i mean another stock that just continues to defy logic here. all these -- petey talks about tj maxx, dollar tree. i wouldn't chase on the back of this, though. my little paper says that it's -- all right. drop for ebay down 1%, karen. 1% not that big a deal. i think there was an article calls for regulations after some paypal accounts were hacked. not a big deal. drop for pan door la, down 10%. steven grasso? hey, that's guy. every time it trades lower, the stock snaps back. but i will tell you. i feel like it's a little bit insurmountable at this point. way too much competition. i would rather be a buyer at google or apple based on that. and a pop here for 102-year-olds. an elderly idaho woman recently jumped at the opportunity to celebrate her 102nd birthday in high-flying fashion. dorothy celebrated by b.a.s.e. jumping off a 500 foot tall overpass in twin falls. the key to longevity is to never think about her age. she had no idea she was doing that, right? she is asking right now. where is my kite? all right. before we head to break, let's take a look at gm shares here being added to the s&p 500. you see that hop there, up by 4.4%. karen, this is a stock that you have been in, correct? i'm married to it. you're married to it. that's right. i am. so that's good. i wasn't expecting that right away, although it's not shocking. that was sort of on the radar out there. good numbers today, good sales. coming up next, we are checking the vital signs. why is it the best time in over a decade to buy into some of ese names? how one of the biggest names on the planet is inching closer and closer to a bear market? we're talk japan a little later on. fast money means trading. everybody's got to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. it's idea generation. it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. plus, the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami. i am fast money. i am pete najarian. i am fast money. are you fast money? go to the nbcuniversal store and order your fast money t. run with the big dogs. powerful screening tools, and guaranteed 1-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade, and etrade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. southern ♪ hooking up the country helping business run ♪ ♪ trains! ♪ they haul everything, safely and on time. ♪ tracks! ♪ they connect the factories built along the lines. and that means jobs, lots of people, making lots and lots of things. let's get your business rolling now, everybody sing. ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪ ♪ helping this big country move ahead as one ♪ ♪ norfolk southern how's that function? ♪♪♪ big pharma on the move in today's section. the american society of clinical oncology holding its meeting today. barbara ryan managing director of fti consulting joins us here on set. great to see you. great to see you, let's talk about bristol-myers. one of the biggest movers in the s&p 500. what do you make of how much is being baked into the stock for this new melanoma drug that really got it going? well, let me start with first of all they already have a new immunotherapy called yairvoy already on the market for malignant melanoma. these products are game changers. if you look at the way cancer has been treated in the past, it's really with cytotoxic agents that are by definition toxic to the cancer. now we're talking about products that actually propel your immune system to do what we would like to it do and fight cancer cells. and what is striking about these therapies is that they're fundamentally changing the way patients are treated, and they're having a very dramatic and sustained response. so we are seeing many patients live for long periods of time in cancers that have previously been very, very challenging like melanoma. what is also exciting is now we're looking at asco we saw bristol-myers pd-1, which is another immunotherapy agent combined and seeing better results. the view is not only are these going to work in melanoma, they're going to work in other tumor types whether it be lung cancer, kidney cancer, breast cancer, head and neck , and on and on. so it's applicable to others, which is the promising part of it. i want to bring to you the point that one analyst on the street has been making who has a sell rating in bristol-myers saying it's completely overvalued at this point. the data from phase 3 is not expected until 2016. and they're a huge part of the valuation based on this one drug in a very, very competitive space. what would you say to is that? that's three years away. obviously, the history of predicting both timing and the ultimate success of new products has been very channeling to say the least. so beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. at the enend of the day, it's about the net present value of the future sales of the products, and many are arguing, and i think it's perfectly appropriate at this time that this is going to be a 10, 15, potentially $20 billion category. and that's an annual sales. i think the other thing that is compelling about bristol-myers is that it is a company that really has transformed itself. it's gotten out of its non-core businesses verysuccessfully. it's become a biopharmany. and it's leveraged to the pipeline that it has. 20 billion in terms of melanoma specifically? no, no, sorry for that. for these immunotherapy agents in a variety of cancers. and, again, it's early days in the data in other cancers beyond lung cancer and beyond melanoma. but certainly that's the enthusiasm. and barbara, where would you stand on something like merck? because merck, when you look at the forward valuations right now trading a lot cheaper than bristol-myers. but they also have what looks to be a huge amount of work in the same area in melanoma that is going to multiple phase 1, phase 2, and the rest of it. if you have looking at the names works you almost prefer merck because of valuation over bristol? actually, it's a stock that have i talked about a bunch of advertisements on this air saying it's the most undervalued pharma stock, precisely for the reason if you look at merck right now, it trades at just about 14 times earnings, where as bristol-myers trades about 23 times earnings. big, big difference obviously in expectations. there is not as much leverage at bristol-myers to -- i mean at merck to the pipeline. and they may not have the dramatic portfolio that bristol has. but i think what investors have forgotten in this space, and i've covered the space for over 30 years, you know, drug companies too develop new drugs. and it's been about ten years. so i think what we're seeing now is a peripheral -- there is a portfolio of products that these companies are bringing to the market. and people are just discovering, wow, pharma companies can have pipelines, not just biotech stocks. and what is moving out of asco? not biotech for the most part. you have one or two names. but broadly speaking, pharma. and i think that, you know, we are seeing the early signs of an improving return in r & d. and i think valuations for the sector can go meaningfully higher. you think there can be a successful transition. at one point these stocks were looked at safety, dividend pairs, great yields there is a transition that will be made into recognizing the stocks for pipelines that they have. i think that's what is happening. because the data out at merck probably didn't drive the dramatic stock price performances. the perception that is changing and the rerating of these stocks. right. and now we've got high yielding bonds with equity kickers. and that makes the group a lot more attractive i think than it's been for quite some time. bash remarks thanks for stopping by. barbara ryan of fti. let's take a check on pfizer shares, up more than 10% so far this year. options traders making bullish checks out there. brian an, what did you see today? a lot of option activity going on, pfizer trading at about two times average daily volume. we saw one trade goer out and sell in december 26 puts. about 5,000 hit the market in one big sweep. we saw about 10,000 trade on the day, midday. selling for that for about $126. traders are willing to get along fiez fer you see pfizer tick down below $26. they're selling insurance, a put. they would be willing to buy down at the $26 level with the break even below 25. certainly support. good big rotation going around. people trading into some of these big pharma names. well heard barbara mention about merck, trading 14 times. pfizer trades at 13 times. they want to get into the game and at least selling some premium here to do that. thank you. you can catch more options action 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up next, we're getting a leg up at the open witp trades for tomorrow. plus, the hottest trades on the planet keep losing steam here. the japan sell-off intensifying today, and fears for deeper losses keep on mounting. a look at how much lower we could go. that's next. ♪♪ ♪♪ more rain... ♪♪ ♪♪ when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪♪ ♪♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. ♪♪ ♪♪ i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ♪♪ ♪♪ ge software connecttients to nurses to the right machines while dramatically reducing waiting time. now a waiting room is just a room. welcome back to fast money. we're live at the nasdaq market site. a very rainy, dreary times square. time to talk hotel stocks. the 35th annual nyu international hospitality industry investment conference under way right now in new york city. simon hobbs joins us with a special guest. high, simon. indeed, melissa, welcome to the nyu conference. we're just on the other side times square from you at of course the marriott marquee. joining me, the big guns are coming in now. it's the ceo of marriott, arnie sorenson. great to have you here. are you getting less concerned about the sequester? when the i spoke to you last time, you were very concerned on the impact it could have on the d.c. area, and that affected your projection for the full year. the pressure off? i think the pressure is not gone, but i think the first few months have been comforting. so we worry that the sequester would have sort of an immediate impact on government spending, and maybe corporate confidence. i think what the first two months of the sequester has told us is that the economic recovery is strong enough and broad enough that it's overcoming the weakness, at least at the moment. i assume that means you're tracking above the mid point of the range. would that be fair? i'm not going took about our guidance numbers right now. let me ask you about your space for buybacks there is a debate where your stock could go on that basis. some say $2 billion over the next couple years, 13% of your outstanding shares. others say well maybe $3 billion with asset sales. what are you able to tell us? well, what we've talked about so far is about a billion dollars this year we think will return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. that's about 80/20 in favor of share repurchases. our dividends are a couple hundred million a year. right. last year we did well over a billion dollars of share repurchases. we produce a billion dollars or so growing of cash flow every year. we're committed to returning whatever we don't invest in our business to our shareholders. that means a billion dollars or more growing every year. as far as the eye can seattle. is the power shifting in the industry? blackstone with a 40, $50 billion ipo of hilton still to come appears to have allowed one major hotel now in new york to drop room service. are you going to be doing that as well for your brands? will you drop room service as a requirement? and what will that mean for investors, for marriott investor and also for owners? for you or for anybody else who wants to check in and have room service available, come to the marriott marquee. so you will maintain. and how many of your hotels does room service actually run at a loss? oh, it's hard to make money on room service. run at a loss? undoubtedly that's why hilton has made the decision they've made. now to be fair, people do prefer more casual eating today. probably more gourmet e today. we are at a more casual society than we've ever been so we don't see quite the share of volume in room service we've seen in the past. but we see on a night where there ask inclement weather, late check-ins, people don't want to go out to eat because of the weather, we'll do hundreds of covers in this hotel in the marriott marquee for room service in the evenin and that's something that full service customers expect to have available to them when they need it. i don't know. hundreds of meals in a hotel this size doesn't sound a lot to me. but thank you. oh, you bet. i'll let you go and meet your owners. arnie sorenson, the ceo of marriott. one of the many big players at this lodging conference on the other side of times square, to you, melissa. stay dry, simon. it's like a monsoon through. good to see you. simon hobbs. all right. so let's trade this thing karen, where do you stand on the hotel space? i like hertz, actually, the best of all. i think i love that dollar thrifty acquisition for them. marriott is not bad. what do you normally order when you order room service? french onion soup, and a bottle of dom. it depends on who i'm with. maybe you want to find out. oh! let's move on here. time now for our top three trades for tuesday. traders around the world are watching japan as the hottest trade on the planet continues to cool off in recent weeks. let's send it over to get the look at how the session in asia is shaping up so far this morning. sri? hello, melissa. i think we're in for another rough day. expect morselling on the nikkei. that's what the futures market is certainly telling us. so at the market close, the official market close yesterday in tokyo, the futures were off by 2%. so if we do see more selling, that's going to be quite serious for the markets. that will bring us in striking distance of bad market territory. that's quite a swift reversal of fortunes for a market, remember, that has been up. at one point this year on a year to database sis by more than 50%. remember that the weakness in the japanese currency has been a big, big driver of this positive sentiment. that is now starting to turn. dollar/yen has cracked below 100 support level. so watch out. the exporters today. finally, positioning in the market broadly gives you a pretty good clue what is going to happen next. this extraordinary rally on the nikkei has been fueled by foreign money. investors have plowed almost 3.8 trillion yen. those overweight in speculative positions are now being unwound that process is going to continue and bring more pressure to bear on the market. here is the real kicker, melissa. very quickly before i go, domestic cash investors have been net sellers. so that's suggests they don't have much faith in this grand policy experiment. we really need that buy-in from domestic investors, unless the rally, if we don't see that, the rally will stall. back to you. now. all right, sri, thanks for that. steven p. grasso, in terms of traders on the floor tomorrow morning, how much does japan impact how you perceive what the u.s. session is going to be doing? i think it's a huge impact. but you also have to realization is the biggest impact is the chairman, ben bernanke. we want to know, a, what he is going to do when you see the way the market traded on the lows today when there were all sorts of rumors back and forth. but this week everything is focused on the johns hopkins jobs nchlts. stock has been surging up 22%. karen, where is dg? it surged 22%, as you dramatically said. it's still not so expensive. of all the quarters, this is the