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Sunday, August 2, 2009

My penny Stock for August - i have a Buy rating on ABR ( Arbor Realty Trust, Inc )

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc ( ABR ) 1.81 a share 8/1/09 target price 2.25 a share by 2009

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is a specialized real estate finance company. The Company invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multi-family and commercial real estate markets. It invests primarily in real estate-related bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, preferred and direct equity, and in limited cases, discounted mortgage notes and other real estate-related assets. The Company also invests in mortgage-related securities. It conducts all of its operations and investing activities through its operating partnership, Arbor Realty Limited Partnership, and its wholly owned subsidiaries. The Company serves as the general partner of its operating partnership, and owns a 100% partnership interest in its operating partnership as of December 31, 2008. The Company is externally managed and advised by Arbor Commercial Mortgage, LLC (ACM), a national commercial real estate finance company. This stocks looks undervalued. This stock should bounce back as soon the credit crisis comes to an end. Attention this is a risky and long term stock pick !While we're waiting for the recovery, I'll sit back and get fat off the dividends when they return shortly in 2010 . Regardless - this stock will rally up - make no mistake about it. I will enjoy my dividend :)The company will still do great in this real estate downturn.This should be a screaming buy....if not for the fact that management is trying as hard as possible to avoid mark-to-market, even when it comes to the detriment of tax liability. Any time management is that focused on finding loopholes in GAAP, you need to discount book value by at least 50%.However, in the near-term, Arbor will see great profits in swaps, due to LIBOR rates. This might be the thing that also kills them next year, when rates eventually will begin to rise, though, as the vast majority of their leverage is floating.Real Estate. . . has it hit bottom. . my money says that commercial has also ?? Strong mgmt in commercial REIT market; negative perception overdone. so buy 1/2 now and buy more if ABR dips lower !
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