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Monday, November 2, 2009

Top November stock pick for 2009 ( DNDN ) Dendreon Corp ?


Dendreon Corp $ 25.27 a share as of 11/2/2009 , Target price 45.00 by End 2010 .
A biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapeutics that harness the immune system to fight cancer.Dendreon Corporation (Dendreon) is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics that improve cancer treatment options for patients. Dendreon’s most advanced product candidate is Provenge (sipuleucel-T), an active cellular immunotherapy that has completed two Phase III trials for the treatment of asymptomatic, metastatic, androgen-independent prostate cancer. Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN) today announced that it has completed the submission of the amended Biologics License Application (BLA) for PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T), the Company's lead investigational product, to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Dendreon is seeking licensure for PROVENGE for men with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). If approved by the FDA, PROVENGE would represent the first product in the new therapeutic class known as active cellular immunotherapies.Merriman has $50 price target and many analysts think DNDN will be bought out before 2010, and they will have a catalyst from submitting their app to the FDA in a few months...so the stock should outperform market in next 6 months...even though this does not count the huge April run-up. Anybody believe in NewWorldInvestor's $360 price target (not counting dilution vis share issuances)? Pretty interesting...
One must be skittish about long-term hold with DNDN, though, because they want insurance companies to pay about $60,000 per patient after it gets past the FDA and available in the USA market - to only give each patient a few extra months of life before dying. Because there are MANY drugs and treatments that aim to delay death from various cancers by only a few months, and they (almost) all cost tens of thousands per patient, you have to consider Obama and the insurance companies teaming up and targeting this area as a primary cause of PREDICTED/FUTURE healthcare cost growth. They will try to find a way to cut out insurance coverage for these kinds of very expensive treatments. Big ethical debate on the horizon, don't you think?
I hope patients and the economy's stability benefit from the emergence of simpler and cheaper PREVENTIVE treatments like the prostate cancer prevention drug from GTXI, that many folks (the ones who want the drug) can likely pay for themselves on a monthly basis, with only partial insurance co-pay.

The amended BLA includes data from the IMPACT (IMmunotherapy for Prostate AdenoCarcinoma Treatment) trial, which was conducted under a Special Protocol Assessment agreement with the FDA. The IMPACT study met its pre-specified primary endpoint demonstrating a statistically significant improvement in overall survival in men with metastatic CRPC.

"With the BLA submission complete, we have taken an important step towards reaching our goal of bringing a new therapy to men with advanced prostate cancer," said Mitchell H. Gold, MD, president and chief executive officer of Dendreon. "We look forward to working with the FDA to potentially make PROVENGE the first active cellular immunotherapy to be licensed in the United States."

This stock is a very risky stock to buy !

Whole new way of treating cancers, with treatment for breast cancer to follow treatment for prostate cancer. No more chemo or radiation. Amazing technology. Acts like a vaccine. Big companies putting big money into it, i.e. Fidelity Mutual Corp. Provenge looks great, and when combined with the lack of side effects mean this agent will likely become a preferred option in its arena. I do not know an single oncologist who won't be trying to use this in earlier stages if they see the same results shown in IMPACT Future looks really good from here....FDA approval, Row partner , and always a chance a big Pharma steps in and buys them out and thats not even considering thier pipeline potential for new products (breast cancer ) already in the works. If you missed the initial runup it's not to late , theres lots of upward potential as one or all of the possibilities i mentioned materialize. I sold 1/3 of my position after the Bear Raid Fiasco to cover my costs once trading resumed ($26.25/share) I'll sell another 1/3 at $60 and keep the last 1/3 for the long haul.DNDN will likely sell the drug in the US itself, using the cash from 10 million new shares of stock to start that distribution network and it production facilities. That will probably net it 1$-2 billion a year. Then it will probably partner up in Europe and Asia to sell there, where each of those markets could reach up to $1 billion as well. Taking the conservative estimate, if they have revenues of $3 billion, and net income ends up as 10% of that, we get $300 million income, divided by 110 million shares is about $2.75 a share. Throw a PE of 15 on that and that would fetch a stock price of about $41.25. That would be a double from here, on conservative estimates (assuming all goes well). Using higher end estimates that number would look more like $70. I'd be happy with either. It's not the huge gains recorded in the last month, but now all the news is out, so such large gains should not be expected any longer.

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