Dow 10,000 ? ( In 2009 )

Dow 10,000
After touching 10,000, can the Dow keep up its head pace? It may not get the same boost from falling rates again

There was scarcely time to pop the cork. For 58 seconds, on the morning of Mar. 16, the Dow Jones industrial average inched above 10,000. But the sell orders hit the Big Board immediately, and 70 points melted away. By day's end, the Dow closed at 9930, down 28. The next day, it fell back again after a modest rally and closed at 9879.

The betting is that sooner rather than later the Dow will climb above 10,000 and still be there as the closing bell rings. The June, 1999, Dow futures have already closed above 10,000 three times. ''Most of the milestones haven't been crossed in one day,'' says Ralph J. Acampora, Prudential Securities Inc.'s market technician, who was almost giddy over the Dow's brush with history. ''It's exciting, it's fun.''

TAMED INFLATION. Indeed, the long bull market that started on Aug. 12, 1982, with the Dow at 776.9, still packs a wallop--even after a heroic climb that has netted an elevenfold increase in stock prices. Better still, the fundamentals are there to keep the market aloft: a powerful domestic economy, low inflation, low interest rates, and a baby-boomer generation that is embracing equities in the hope of securing their uncertain retirement.

But it's also not likely that the next 16 1/2 years of stock market history will match the last. A good part of the upward revaluation of America's equity came from tectonic changes that smothered inflation and allowed interest rates to fall from the mid-teens to the 5% environs. So, future stock price increases will be far more reflective of a company's old-fashioned top-line growth and bottom-line performance. In other words, no more rocket fuel.

Indeed, many market watchers can give you reasons to believe that the market could stall or even falter. The big fear: the awakening of inflation and, perhaps, a new climate of rising interest rates. Even as the Dow flirted with its record, oil prices were rising (page 38).

Also, the market may need a rest. Almost no one predicted the speed of the Dow's ascent--8.5% from Jan. 1 to Mar. 15. Most of the 50 forecasters who were polled by BUSINESS WEEK in December of last year were bullish on the stock market for 1999, but only nine forecast a Dow that would hit 10,000 by midyear; 18 predicted 10,000 by yearend (page 36).

Abby Joseph Cohen--Goldman, Sachs & Co.'s investment strategist--says the story behind this sudden move is that ''the U.S. economy remains in very good condition.'' What also counts, she adds, is that ''the global economy is not quite as fragile as we thought a few months ago. Emerging Asia is stabilizing, Europe is O.K., and Latin America did not go into the deep recession that everyone feared.''

But what does Dow 10,000 really mean? For the millions of investors who have socked away their 401(k) money in index funds, the Dow has little relevance--since those funds usually track the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rather than the Dow's 30 stocks. True, the Dow is running slightly ahead of the S&P this year, but last year the S&P trounced the Dow, 26.7% to 16.1%. ''The significance of Dow 10,000 is not great,'' says investment strategist Stuart T. Freeman of A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc., ''but it does have a positive psychological effect when we achieve this sort of benchmark.''

But while investors in small- and mid-cap stocks may welcome a psychological lift, they'd probably rather see their stock portfolios rising. Although the Dow is up 7.6% through Mar. 17, the S&P MidCap 400 is off 6.4% and the Russell 2000, an index of small-cap stocks, is down 5.6%. ''I can't get excited when so few stocks are participating in the rise,'' says Anthony F. Dwyer, chief market strategist at Ladenberg, Thalmann & Co.

The institutional side of Wall Street also downplays the Dow's quest for 10,000. ''It's a retail media event,'' says Charles Albers, portfolio manager of the Oppenheimer Main Street Growth & Income Fund. ''But the Dow Jones industrial average--and I emphasize the word industrial--is not a good measure of the equity market.''

Indeed, many Dow companies were leaders a generation ago but look downright dowdy in the silicon-tinged New Economy. Technology companies make up 19% of the S&P and half of the NASDAQ Composite index. The Dow 30 lacks such market leaders as Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC)--the first and third largest companies by market capitalization.

GOOD JOB REPORT. The last technology company admitted to the Dow was Hewlett-Packard Co. (HWP) in 1997. And with its mediocre bottom-line and stock performance since then, it hardly represents the dynamic expansion in high-tech. The only other tech stock in the Dow is IBM (IBM).

Despite all that, it's still the Dow that everybody from cab driver to captain of industry quotes. So, what is its latest push telling us? Most obviously, the Dow's record reflects a rosier consensus about the U.S. economy. In early March, the Dow seemed stuck at around 9300, struggling against an unfriendly bond market. Long-term interest rates had been inching up since New Year's, especially when the Commerce Dept. reported that the economy grew at a blistering 6.1% rate in the fourth quarter. But that was offset by the Labor Dept.'s best-of-both-worlds report on employment: strong job growth to buoy the consumer side of the economy, and slowing wage growth to allay fears of inflation.

The Dow came roaring back with a vengeance, up 460 points to a new high of 9736 in just two days, paving the way for the drive to 10,000 that started on Mar. 12. Leading the charge were such consumer-oriented stocks as American Express (AXP), Sears (S), and Citigroup (C). But the Dow also made strides with the help of Exxon (XON) and Chevron (CHV), which rallied on OPEC's call for production cutbacks to boost sagging prices. That also pushed spot oil prices higher and helped the S&P 500 hit new highs. Four of the seven best-performing stock groups in the S&P this month were energy-related.

ZIPPY NIKKEI. The oil rally may help push the Dow higher. But if it sparks inflation fears, bond yields would soon rise and equity prices would drop. Even now, there's an uncomfortable disconnect between the rapid riSe in stocks and the modest rebound in bond prices since early March. Depending on the valuation model, stocks remain as much as 27% overvalued relative to bonds. While that is not a sell signal, it suggests that stocks will not take kindly to any bad news like poor profit reports in April, when first-quarter results roll in. The last time the market was this overvalued was on the eve of last year's 20% correction.

Even if valuations are euphoric, market sentiment is not, says Bernard G. Schaeffer of Schaeffer's Investment Research Inc. in Cincinnati. He says polls of newsletter advisers show bullishness high--but not at current peak levels. Nor, in his view, does trading in index options indicate great optimism.

Foreign investors, who provided much of the fuel for the U.S. stock market in early 1998, are not overly bullish, either. ''We see more potential in Europe,'' says Martin Luley, a portfolio manager at Commerz International Capital Management in Frankfurt. And the new zip in Japan's Nikkei is also attracting capital that might have otherwise flowed to New York. Meanwhile, the flood of money into mutual funds, a staple of the bull market, has slowed. Robert Adler of AMG Data Services says that money going into equity funds is about 40% behind the 1998 rate. Laszlo Birinyi of Birinyi Associates Inc. in Greenwich, Conn., has his own informal measure of investor sentiment: media coverage. ''We haven't seen bulls on magazine covers in years,'' says Birinyi. Still, he sees the Dow hitting 12,000 by yearend 2000.

Sentiment and psychology aside, what do the fundamentals say? Stocks can make gains as long as a strong economy with low inflation persists. But the 1,100% gain that the Dow has experienced during this bull market will not be repeated in the coming decade.

That's because falling interest rates have a powerful multiplier effect on stock prices. Edward M. Kerschner, PaineWebber Inc.'s investment strategist, estimates that an average stock that traded with a price-earnings ratio of 8 or 10 with rates at 14% could command a 22 to 25 p-e under today's rate environment. If inflation remains tame, there's room for interest rates to come down some more. But when they're already around 5%, they can't fall another 9 percentage points again.

By J. Laderman

Is it a goog time to buy Google ? 5 Reasons To BUY Google (GOOG)

Google (GOOG) shares are already up 60% from their January lows, but Citi's Mark Mahaney thinks shares can go up another 25% in the next year.
He reiterated his "buy" rating on the stock in a note today, with five main drivers. He says:
Search spending looking good: At least in-line with Q2, and retail "showing lift." (Still too early to call the quarter, though -- September is key.)
Mobile growth is real: Advertisers seeing 10x increase in clickthrough from mobile devices. Smartphone sales strong, which drives more mobile search.
Online retail Q2 results positive for Internet advertising, both search and display. Second half could see 20% y/y marketing spend growth vs. 3% y/y growth in the first half.
Google's "caffeine" improvements to search could drive "select, but material" increase in index size and speed.
"JK Wedding" YouTube video a case study for the site's potential revenue and profit growth, via advertising and music referral sales. "Seems like GOOG's biggest loss-leader is turning profitable..." (Mahaney recently published another YouTube slobber-fest.)
Seems plausible, though we'd caution against getting too excited about Google's mobile business yet.
One risk for Google is that an uptick in mobile ads -- and a shift in consumer behavior to surfing more on the phone and less on the computer -- could actually be bad for Google in the near term. Why? Its desktop business is likely far more lucrative on a per-session basis today than its mobile business will be for a long time. Especially as iPhone (and smartphone) users gravitate to apps, not the Web, where Google faces much more competition than it faces in search.
One mobile ad exec likes to note (with a chuckle) that Google is probably better off trying to make a 1% improvement in its regular search business than investing much effort in mobile (today).

http://www.businessinsider.com/

Stock futures point down on Wall Street today

AP Business Writer I. Augstums, Ap Business
Wall Street looked to plunge at the opening of trading Monday as investors around the world feared that consumers are too anxious to help lift the economy into recovery.
U.S. stock futures fell sharply Monday after overseas markets extended the heavy selling that began on Wall Street Friday. That pullback followed a weaker than expected reading on consumer confidence.
The Shanghai stock market fell almost 6 percent and the major indexes in Europe were all down more than 1.5 percent.
Oil prices also continued to fall sharply, reflecting the growing concerns about a weak economy that will curtail demand for energy.
Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 180, or 1.9 percent, to 9,141. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures declined 21.10, or 2.1 percent, to 984.70, while Nasdaq 100 index futures declined 30.50, or 1.9 percent, to 1,584.50.
After rallying for months on expectations of an economic recovery, investors are now worried that they have been too optimistic given consumers' continuing reluctance to spend.
Friday's drop on Wall Street was triggered by a sharp drop in the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which followed a surprisingly weak July retail sales report from the Commerce Department. While other parts of the economy, including housing and manufacturing, are showing signs of progress, the country cannot have a strong recovery unless consumers are spending more freely. Their spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic growth.
Traders will get more insight into consumers' mindset as retailers report second-quarter earnings this week. Last week, the nation's largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., said its most important sales figure, those from stores open at least a year, fell during the April-June period.
Among companies reporting results early Monday, Lowe's Cos. said poor weather and cautious consumer spending caused sales to fall 19 percent in the second quarter. The home improvement retailer missed analysts' forecasts.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 3.1 percent as investors weren't satisfied by news that the country had emerged from recession in the second quarter. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.9 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 2.2 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 2.5 percent.
Oil prices hovered around $66 a barrel in pre-opening trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Meanwhile, bond prices rose as investors sought safety of Treasurys. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.48 percent from 3.57 percent late Friday.
The dollar rose against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Clean Energy Fuels ( CLNE ) posts wider-than-expected Q2 loss!

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) today announced its operating results for the second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2009.

Gasoline gallon equivalents (Gallons) delivered during the second quarter of 2009 totaled 23.7 million, up 28% from 18.5 million Gallons in the same period a year ago. On a sequential basis, Gallons sold rose 30%. For the first six months of 2009, volume increased 16% to 42.0 million Gallons, compared with 36.1 million Gallons in the first six months of 2008. Gallons include the Company's sales of CNG, LNG, and biomethane and the Gallons associated with providing operations and maintenance services.

Revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2009 totaled $27.9 million, compared with $33.8 million in the same period in 2008. For the six months ended June 30, 2009, revenue totaled $58.1 million, compared with $63.8 million a year ago. The reduction in revenue was primarily the result of lower natural gas commodity prices between periods, which reduced the natural gas commodity charges passed through by the Company to many of its customers. The reduced commodity prices, however, also reduce the Company's cost of sales, which helped the Company improve its gross margins during the quarter. Gross margin increased to $11.7 million in the second quarter of 2009, up from $8.6 million in the first quarter of 2009.

Net loss for the second quarter of 2009 was $6.4 million, or $0.13 per share, compared with a net loss of $3.2 million, or $0.07 per share, in the second quarter of 2008. For the first six months of 2009, net loss was $12.9 million, or $0.26 per share, compared to a net loss of $8.6 million, or $0.19 per share, in the first half of 2008. The Company recorded non-cash charges of $2.2 million and $2.4 million, respectively, related to valuing its Series I warrants in the second quarter and first six months of 2009. These charges contributed $0.04 and $0.05 per share, respectively, to the Company's net loss in the periods presented.

Non-GAAP loss per share for the second quarter of 2009 remained unchanged from the second quarter of 2008 at $0.01. Non-GAAP loss per share for the first half of 2009 was $0.07, compared with $0.08 in the first half of 2008. Non-GAAP EPS (or Non-GAAP loss per share) is described below and reconciled to the GAAP measure net income (loss).

Andrew J. Littlefair, Clean Energy's President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "We are very encouraged by the solid growth of our business in the second quarter, as we improved both our volumes and margins on a sequential and year-over-year basis. The acquisition of four transit property operations and the commencement of our new sales agreement for our renewable landfill gas drove these results. We are continuing to win contracts in several key markets, and we currently have 25 stations under construction or being upgraded as well as a very strong backlog. Additionally, we are seeing tangible progress at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach with their clean truck roll out, and we remain well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity.

"With the equity raise we completed on July 1, we will have approximately $93 million of cash heading into the last half of the year. This cash, combined with our increasing operating cash flow, should put us in good position financially to capitalize on the opportunities we see coming in our business," concluded Littlefair.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

To supplement the Company's consolidated financial statements, which statements are prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP, the Company uses a non-GAAP financial measure called non-GAAP Earnings per Share (Non-GAAP EPS or Non-GAAP loss per share).

The Company uses this non-GAAP financial measure for financial and operational decision making and as a means to evaluate period-to-period comparisons. Management believes that this non-GAAP financial measure provides meaningful supplemental information regarding the Company's performance by excluding certain expenses that may not be indicative of our core business operating results and may help in comparing our current-period results with those of prior periods. Management believes that they and investors benefit from referring to these non-GAAP financial measures in assessing Company performance and when planning, forecasting and analyzing future periods. Management believes this non-GAAP financial measure is useful to investors because (1) it allows for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by management in its financial and operational decision making and (2) it is used by institutional investors and the analyst community to help them analyze the results of Clean Energy's business.

The material limitations of Non-GAAP EPS are as follows: Non-GAAP EPS is not a recognized term under GAAP and does not purport to be an alternative to earnings per share as an indicator of operating performance or any other GAAP measure. Moreover, because not all companies use identical measures and calculations, the presentation of Non-GAAP EPS may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. These limitations are compensated for by using Non-GAAP EPS in conjunction with traditional GAAP operating performance and cash flow measures.

Non-GAAP EPS

Non-GAAP EPS is defined as net income (loss), plus employee-related stock based compensation charges, net of related tax benefits, plus or minus any mark-to-market losses or gains on the Company's Series I warrants, the total of which is divided by the Company's weighted average shares outstanding on a diluted basis. While the Company has not done so for the periods presented in this release, for future quarters, the Company may add back certain non-recurring significant expenditures or other significant non-cash charges incurred to calculate Non-GAAP EPS. As it relates to stock-based compensation, because of varying available valuation methodologies, the volatility of the expense depending on market forces outside of management's control, subjective assumptions and the variety of award types that companies can use under FAS 123R, the Company's management believes that providing Non-GAAP EPS excluding these charges provides helpful information for investors when evaluating the Company's operating results (excluding the impact of these non-cash charges) over different periods of time. The Company also believes excluding significant items not expected to recur in the foreseeable future and significant non-cash gains or losses provides investors with helpful information when assessing the Company's underlying financial performance.

There are a number of limitations related to the use of Non-GAAP EPS versus EPS calculated in accordance with GAAP. First, non-GAAP EPS excludes stock-based compensation expenses that are recurring. Stock-based expenses have been and will continue to be for the foreseeable future a significant recurring expense in the Company's business. Second, stock-based awards are an important part of the Company's employees' compensation and impact their performance. Finally, the components of the costs that the Company excludes in its calculation of Non-GAAP EPS may differ from the components that its peer companies exclude when they report their results of operations. These limitations are compensated for by using non-GAAP EPS in conjunction with traditional GAAP EPS and other GAAP profitability measures. Management does not recommend placing undue reliance on this non-GAAP measure.

The table below shows Non-GAAP EPS and also reconciles these figures to the GAAP measure net income (loss):


Three Months Six Months

Ended June 30, Ended June 30,

2008 2009 2008 2009

Net Income $ (3,201,730 ) $ (6,376,766 ) $ (8,630,429 ) $ (12,870,813 )
(Loss)

Employee Stock
Based
Compensation, 2,599,895 3,506,322 5,098,331 7,020,144

Net of Tax
Benefits

Mark-to-Market
Loss on Series -- 2,209,596 -- 2,386,363
I Warrants

Adjusted Net (601,835 ) (660,848 ) (3,532,098 ) (3,464,306 )
Income (Loss)

Diluted
Weighted
Average Common 44,300,309 50,247,366 44,291,401 50,242,814
Shares
Outstanding

Non-GAAP
Earnings (Loss) $ (0.01 ) $ (0.01 ) $ (0.08 ) $ (0.07 )
Per Share

Clean Energy owns and operates two LNG production plants in Texas and California, with a combined capacity of 260,000 LNG gallons per day.
Analysts on average were looking for a loss of 7 cents a share, before items, on revenue of $31.5 million, according to Reuters Estimates.
Shares of Clean Energy were down 2 percent at $10 in trading after the bell. The stock has tripled in value since November 2008, when it had touched a low of $3.23. It traded as high as $19.95 in September last year

I still have a buy rating on CLNE , this is a long term play , CLNE has more contracts coming in thru out the up & coming years to come ! So buy on the dips and you will be rewarded in the long term. this is a small growing company , that has a bright future ahead , oil will rise again & congress will wake up and pass Clean Energy Bill shortly ! ( Natural Gas for cars )

My penny Stock for August - i have a Buy rating on ABR ( Arbor Realty Trust, Inc )

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc ( ABR ) 1.81 a share 8/1/09 target price 2.25 a share by 2009

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. is a specialized real estate finance company. The Company invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multi-family and commercial real estate markets. It invests primarily in real estate-related bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, preferred and direct equity, and in limited cases, discounted mortgage notes and other real estate-related assets. The Company also invests in mortgage-related securities. It conducts all of its operations and investing activities through its operating partnership, Arbor Realty Limited Partnership, and its wholly owned subsidiaries. The Company serves as the general partner of its operating partnership, and owns a 100% partnership interest in its operating partnership as of December 31, 2008. The Company is externally managed and advised by Arbor Commercial Mortgage, LLC (ACM), a national commercial real estate finance company. This stocks looks undervalued. This stock should bounce back as soon the credit crisis comes to an end. Attention this is a risky and long term stock pick !While we're waiting for the recovery, I'll sit back and get fat off the dividends when they return shortly in 2010 . Regardless - this stock will rally up - make no mistake about it. I will enjoy my dividend :)The company will still do great in this real estate downturn.This should be a screaming buy....if not for the fact that management is trying as hard as possible to avoid mark-to-market, even when it comes to the detriment of tax liability. Any time management is that focused on finding loopholes in GAAP, you need to discount book value by at least 50%.However, in the near-term, Arbor will see great profits in swaps, due to LIBOR rates. This might be the thing that also kills them next year, when rates eventually will begin to rise, though, as the vast majority of their leverage is floating.Real Estate. . . has it hit bottom. . my money says that commercial has also ?? Strong mgmt in commercial REIT market; negative perception overdone. so buy 1/2 now and buy more if ABR dips lower !

Blog You ! - T Shirt ? CNBC Top Dogs, are you listening ???

Ok, I was watching the Blog You segment on CNBC Reports on friday , and see that Dennis Kneale has a t shirt , that kicks ass ! so once again i go to CNBC.com and see if i can find this t shirt ( maybe for sale ?) , well once again no website or link for CNBC Reports ! come on now ! On of the best show on TV , and still no commercials , website or advertisement ! Well if you are listening out there , lets get w/ the programs and step it up ! and get CNBC Reports there Props ! Honest , fair and no BS reporting ! Maybe you can sell the Blog You ( t Shirts ) @ CNBC Store ?

Your thoughts ?

My Top Realty Fund stock for the long term - Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Inc !

RQI ( 4.57 ) a share as of Aug. 1 , 2009 , Target price 9.75 target price by Oct. 2009 !
Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund, Inc. (the Fund) is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Company’s primary investment objective is to provide high current income through investment in real estate securities. Capital appreciation is a secondary investment objective. The Fund seeks to invest at least 90% of the total assets in common stocks, preferred stocks, and other equity securities issued by real estate companies, primarily real estate investment trusts (REITs). It invests in sectors, such as shopping center, self storage, diversified, healthcare, residential apartment and office. The Fund's investment manager is Cohen & Steers Capital Management, Inc. Cohen & Steers is a manager of income-oriented equity portfolios specializing in U.S. and international real estate securities, large cap value stocks, utilities and listed infrastructure, and preferred securities. The company also offers alternative investment strategies such as hedged real estate securities portfolios and private real estate multimanager strategies. Headquartered in New York City, with offices in London, Brussels, Hong Kong and Seattle, Cohen & Steers serves individual and institutional investors through a broad range of investment vehicles. Our passionate belief that dividends provide an important part of an investment's total return and overall diversification has been the foundation for our portfolio strategies. We believe the significant growth in our assets under management over the past two decades reflects the growing demand for dividend-paying equity investments. The Firm at a Glance
Established in 1986
$16.3 billion in assets under management (as of 6/30/09) 125 employees-->
New York City headquarters
Offices in New York, Seattle, Brussels, London and Hong Kong
One of Ben Stein's favorite ETFs.dividends will come back in 2010 ! While the commercial US real estate market hasn't suffered to badly, I expect that will change. I think the current price and recent price fall reflects some of this weekness. However, the price could sink some more before bottoming out. As long as they keep up the dividends, I'll be happy!Deeply discounted with a very high dividend yield that will be back in the near future .. Bound for a rebound.