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Monday, April 11, 2011

What stocks CRAMER has a BUY or sell RECOMMENDATIONS ?

Wednesday, March 9th buy and sell recommendations of Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money on CNBC. Since then, for comparison purposes, the S&P 500 is +0.88% and the Dow is +1.60%.




CRAMER BUY RECOMMENDATIONS



Noble Energy (NBL)



Noble Energy (NBL) was first recommended this year by Cramer on January 10. He also put out a buy on March 9 and March 16. Since January 10, NBL shares are up by 16.1%, and since March 9, it is +6.0%.



Non-GAAP EPS (2010): $4.22



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (2011): $3.15 to $5.87 (-25.3% to +39.0%)



Revenues (2010): $3.02 B



Revenue analyst estimates (2011): $3.1 B to $3.6 B (+2.6% to +19.2%)



Profit Margins (2011 and 2010): 81.14% and 77.30%



Q1 2011 report date is April 28.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $0.70 to $1.31 (-10.2% to +67.9% vs. $0.78 in Q1 2010)



Revenue analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $741 M to $871.25 M (+1.0% to +18.8% vs. $733 M in Q1 2010)



NBL shares trade with a price to sales multiple of 5.7, which is the highest level between 2001 and 2010.



Debt to equity ratio: 0.33



Looking at historical figures, investors have priced in revenue growth in excess of 25% and EPS growth well above the highest estimates. Given the improving global economic environment and resultant higher demand for oil and gas, and Noble’s discovered reserves, we expect Noble to continue increase production and sales at its current pace, we expect revenues at $3.4 billion. To continue reading, click here.


Noble Energy (NBL)


Noble Energy (NBL) was first recommended this year by Cramer on January 10. He also put out a buy on March 9 and March 16. Since January 10, NBL shares are up by 16.1%, and since March 9, it is +6.0%.



Non-GAAP EPS (2010): $4.22



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (2011): $3.15 to $5.87 (-25.3% to +39.0%)



Revenues (2010): $3.02 B



Revenue analyst estimates (2011): $3.1 B to $3.6 B (+2.6% to +19.2%)



Profit Margins (2011 and 2010): 81.14% and 77.30%



Q1 2011 report date is April 28.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $0.70 to $1.31 (-10.2% to +67.9% vs. $0.78 in Q1 2010)



Revenue analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $741 M to $871.25 M (+1.0% to +18.8% vs. $733 M in Q1 2010)



NBL shares trade with a price to sales multiple of 5.7, which is the highest level between 2001 and 2010.



Debt to equity ratio: 0.33



Looking at historical figures, investors have priced in revenue growth in excess of 25% and EPS growth well above the highest estimates. Given the improving global economic environment and resultant higher demand for oil and gas, and Noble’s discovered reserves, we expect Noble to continue increase production and sales at its current pace, we expect revenues at $3.4 billion. Assuming a price to sales multiple of 5.5, we place a price target of $105.50. You’re looking at making 9% here. These shares do not provide aggressive capital appreciation at this point, but are a buy.



Noble Energy is a leading independent energy company engaged in worldwide oil and gas exploration and production. The company has core operations onshore in the U.S., primarily in the DJ Basin, in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, offshore Eastern Mediterranean, and offshore West Africa. This company does have exposure in Saudi Arabia. View the company’s presentation at the Howard Weil Energy Conference on March 28.



Global Industries (GLBL)

Global Industries (GLBL) is up by 16.3%, since March 9. He reiterated the buy on March 16.



Non-GAAP EPS (2010): -$0.71



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (2011): $0.00 to $0.46



Revenues (2010): $568 million



Revenue analyst estimates (2011): $564.5 M to $813 M (-0.6% to +43.1%)



Profit Margins (2011 and 2010): 5.78% and 17.39%



Q1 2011 report date is May 4.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): -$0.07 to $0.03 (vs. -$0.19 in Q1 2010)



Revenue analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $84.9 M to $138.2 M (-20.5% to +29.3% vs. $106.81 M in Q1 2010)



GLBL shares trade with a price to sales multiple of 2.0. In 2004, 2005, and 2007, those multiples were 2.0, 1.9, and 2.5, respectively.



Debt to equity ratio: 0.38



It looks like investors have priced in revenue growth in excess of 15% and EPS growth to above $0.30. We are not quite as bullish, and expect revenues to grow by 10% to $624.8 M. The price to sales multiple is in line, and we place a price target of $11.00. At prices near $10, this would make GLBL a tepid buy opportunity.



The company is a leading offshore solutions provider of offshore construction, engineering, project management, and support services including pipeline construction, platform installation and removal, deepwater / SURF installations, IRM, and diving to the oil and gas industry worldwide.



MEMC Electronic Metals (WFR)

MEMC Electronic Metals (WFR) was first introduced this year by Cramer as a buy on January 14. He brought it back into light on March 9 and then on March 16, with buy recommendations on both days. Since January 14, WFR is +9.5%, and since March 9, it is down by 0.5%. We think WFR is a terrific pick.



Non-GAAP EPS (2010): $0.15



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (2011): $0.94 to $1.54 (+526.6% to +926.6%)



Revenues (2010): $2.23 B



Revenues analyst estimates (2011): $2.2 B to $3.6 B (-1.7% to +61.4%)



Profit margins (2010 and 2009): 15.05% and 11.01%



Q1 2011 earnings release is on April 15.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $0.05 to $0.23 (vs. -$0.04 in Q1 2010)



Revenue analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $500 M to $711.9 M (+14.2% to +62.6% vs. $437.7 M in Q1 2010)



WFR shares trade with a price to sales multiple of 1.3. From 2003 to 2007, the multiples were 2.7, 2.8, 4.5, 5.8, and 10.7, respectively.



Debt to equity ratio: 0.01



WFR shares should be trading near 2 times sales per share, but the company is being penalized for increased costs. Yet, due to expected higher volumes of wafers and higher prices, we expect total revenues to grow by 45% to $3.25 billion. We place a price target of $24.50, and recommend WFR as a buy. At current levels, it is possible to double your money.



The company is a leader in semiconductor and solar technology. MEMC has been a pioneer in the design and development of silicon wafer technologies for over 50 years. With R&D and manufacturing facilities in the U.S., Europe and Asia, MEMC enables the next generation of high performance semiconductor devices and solar cells. Through its SunEdison subsidiary, MEMC is also a developer of solar power projects and a worldwide leader in solar energy services



Saks (SKS)

Saks (SKS): Cramer first told his viewers to sell this company on February 18. He had a change of heart, and put out a buy on it on March 9, March 11, and March 16. Since February 18, SKS is down by 9.6%, and since March 9, it is down by 4.8%.



Non-GAAP EPS (FY 2011 through January): $0.19



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (FY 2012): $0.15 to $0.33 (-21.0% to +73.6%)



Revenues (FY 2011): $2.78 B



Revenues analyst estimates (FY 2012): $2.9 B to $3.0 B (+4.3% to +7.9%)



Profit margins (2010 and 2009): 40.11% and 36.61%



Q1 2011 earnings release is on May 17.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $0.12 to $0.17 (+0% to +41.6% vs. $0.12 in Q1 2010



Revenue analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $681.5 M to $715.5 M (+2.1% to +7.2% vs. $667.438 M in Q1 2010)



SKS shares trade with price to sales multiple of 0.7.



Debt to equity ratio: 0.31



Due to cautious optimism on consumer spending, we believe SKS shares should be trading 0.5 times sales, instead at its current levels. We expect revenues to grow by 4% to $2.89BBQ Grill Master, learn various techniques like: creating the proper BBQ fire, direct and indirect methods of cooking, searing rubs and more! B, and place a price target of $9.10. Short SKS shares.



Saks Incorporated operates 46 Saks Fifth Avenue stores, 57 Saks OFF 5TH stores.



Honeywell (HON)

Honeywell (HON): Cramer has religiously recommended this, with buys on January 7, February 2, February 28, March 9, and March 16. Since January 7, HON shares are +7.6%, and up 28.6% over a 6 month period.



Non-GAAP EPS (2010): $2.81



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (2011): $3.61 to $3.94 (+28.4% to +40.2%)



Revenues (2010): $33.37 billion



Revenues analyst estimates (2011): $35.1 B to $36.6 B



EBT margins (2010 and 2009): 8.52% and 9.64%



Q1 2011 earnings release is on May 17.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $0.79 to $0.85 (+58.0% to 70.0% vs. $0.50 in Q1 2010)



Revenue analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $8.3 B to $8.7 B (+6.7% to +11.8% vs. $7.776 B in Q1 2010



HON shares have a price to sales multiple of 1.4. This is a relatively high multiple given performance since 2001.



Debt to equity ratio: 0.54



We believe HON shares should be trading 1.2 times sales per share, and we expect revenues to grow by 7% to $35.7 B. We also believe Q1 2011 results will fall within the lower end of estimates. We place a price target of $59.50, and believe it will not outperform the market. Consider taking profits soon or cutting your losses on this.



Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN)

Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) is down by 0.1%, since March 8. Cramer also put out a buy on it on March 9 and March 16.



Non-GAAP EPS (2010): -$0.19



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (2011): -$0.26 to -$0.22



Revenues (2010): $567 million



Revenues analyst estimates (2011): $339.27 M to $599 M (-40.1% to +5.6%)



Profit margins (2010 and 2009): 59.35% and 59.74%



Q1 2011 earnings release is on April 27.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): -$0.08 to -$0.06



Revenue analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $81.89 M to $145.9 M (-42.9% to +1.5% vs. $143.635 M)



BDN shares trade with a price to sales multiple of 2.8. From 2001 to 2006, those multiples were 2.6, 2.7, 3.3, 4.3, 4.0, and 4.1, respectively.



Debt to equity ratio: 1.31



We believe these BDN shares are trading with a fair P/S multiple. Due to improving business conditions, we also expect revenues to grow by 2% to $578.34 million, and place a price target of $12.30. Because BDN currently trades near $12, it also seems that investors are also expecting growth in the low single digits. This is not a screaming buy, but it is yielding 4.9%, and expected to beat inflation.



The company is a self-administered and self-managed REIT that provides leasing, property management, development, redevelopment, acquisition and other tenant-related services for a portfolio of office, mixed-use and industrial properties. As of December 31, 2010, it owned and consolidated 233 properties (collectively, the “Properties”) containing an aggregate of approximately 25.6 million net rentable square feet. The Properties include 208 office properties, 20 industrial properties, 4 mixed-use properties and a garage property under redevelopment.



As of December 31, 2010, the REIT also owned interests in 17 unconsolidated real estate ventures (collectively, the “Real Estate Ventures”) that own properties that contain approximately 6.5 million net rentable square feet. In addition, as of December 31, 2010, it owned approximately 509 acres of undeveloped land. The Properties and the properties owned by the Real Estate Ventures are located in or near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Metropolitan Washington, DC; Southern and Central New Jersey; Richmond, Virginia; Wilmington, Delaware; Austin, Texas and Oakland, Concord, Carlsbad and Rancho Bernardo, California. In addition to managing properties that we own, as of December 31, 2010, the REIT managed approximately 7.8 million square feet of office and industrial properties for third parties and Real Estate Ventures.



CRAMER SELL RECOMMENDATIONS



The Blackstone Group (BX)

The Blackstone Group (BX) is up by 6.0%, since March 9. He also restated the sell recommendation on March 16.



Non-GAAP EPS (2010): $1.26



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (2011): $1.40 to $1.70 (+11.1% to +34.9%)

Revenues (2010): $3.119 B



Revenues analyst estimates (2011): $3.7 B to $4.2 B (+18.6% to +34.6%)



Q1 2011 earnings release is on April 21.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $0.31 to $0.40 (-3.1% to +25.0% vs. $0.32 in Q1 2010



Revenues analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $863.7 M to $985 M (+23.1% to +40.4% vs. $701.239 M in Q1 2010)



BX shares trade with a price to sales multiple of 2.2.



Debt to equity ratio: 1.85



We are bullish on BX, and expect its real estate and private equity segment to fare well compared to other years. We expect revenues to expand by 25% to $3.9 B, and place a price target of $23.50, which is about 4.75 points from present or the potential to make 25%. This is a good buy opportunity.



Blackstone is one of the world’s leading investment and advisory firms. Its alternative asset management businesses include the management of private equity funds, real estate funds, hedge fund solutions, credit- oriented funds and closed-end mutual funds. The Blackstone Group also provides various financial advisory services, including financial and strategic advisory, restructuring and reorganization advisory and fund placement services.



Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix (NFLX) has an interesting story. Cramer first recommended selling it on February 25, this year. On Tuesday, March 1, he changed his recommendation to buy. He then put out sell recommendations on March 9 and 16. He finally settled on a buy on March 22. Since February 25, NFLX is up by 8.7%.



Non-GAAP EPS (2010): $2.96



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (2011): $3.99 to $4.93 (+34.7% to +66.5%)



Revenues (2010): $2.16 B



Revenues analyst estimates (2011): $2.8 B to $3.4 B (+29.6% to +57.4%)



EBT Margins (2010 and 2009): 12.38% and 11.51%



Q1 2011 earnings release is on April 25.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $0.93 to $1.17 (+57.6% to +98.3% vs. $0.59 in Q1 2010)



Revenues analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $646.7 M to $719.5 M (+30.9% to +45.7% vs. $493.665 M in Q1 2010)



NFLX shares trade with a price to sales multiple of 5.9.
The Investopedia Guide to Wall Speak : The Terms You Need to Know to Talk Like Cramer, Think Like Soros, and Buy Like Buffett


Debt to equity ratio: 0.81



The Street has high expectations for NetFlix, but we feel that these shares should be trading near 4 times sales per share. Only triple digit revenue growth and EPS growth above 70% would merit the current multiple. We expect revenues to grow by 30% to $2.81 B, and place a price target of $207. NFLX is a sell at these price levels.



With more than 20 million members in the U.S. and Canada, Netflix is the world’s leading Internet subscription service for enjoying movies and TV shows. For $7.99 a month, Netflix members can instantly watch unlimited movies and TV episodes streaming over the Internet to PCs, Macs and TVs.



Qualcomm (QCOM)

Qualcomm (QCOM) has a mixed story. Cramer said to buy it on January 11 and January 27, but he changed his mind on March 16 to a sell. From January 11 to March 16, QCOM is down by 2.3%, but up by 0.4% since March 16.



Non-GAAP EPS (FY 2010 through October): $2.46



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (FY 2011): $2.57 to $3.18 (+4.4% to +29.2%)



Revenues (FY 2010): $10.99 B



Revenues analyst estimates (FY 2011): $13.6 B to $14.9 B (+23.7% to +35.5%)



EBT Margins (2010 and 2009 and 2008): 36.70% and 19.93% and 34.34%



Non-GAAP EPS (Q1 2011): $0.82 (+32.2% vs. $0.62 in Q1 2010)



Revenues (Q1 2011): $3.348 B (+25.4% vs. $2.668 B in Q1 2010)



Q2 2011 earnings release is on April 20.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q2 2011): $0.78 to $0.85 (+32.2% to +44.0% vs. $0.59 in Q2 2010)



Revenues analyst estimates (Q2 2011): $3.51 B to $3.8B (+31.9% to +42.8% vs. $2.661 B in Q1 2010)



QCOM shares trade with a price to sales multiple of 7.5. These shares have historically traded at these lofty multiples.



Debt to equity ratio: ~0



We expect revenues to grow by 30% to $14.28 B, and place a price target of $65. This is an opportunity to make 22%, and would recommend it.



W&T Offshore (WTI)

W&T Offshore (WTI) is up by 11.2%, since March 9. Cramer reiterated the sell on March 16.



Non-GAAP EPS (2010): $1.57



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimate (2011): $0.52 to $1.90 (-66.8% to +21.0%)



Revenues (2010): $706 M



Revenues analyst estimates (2011): $721.3 M to $841.2 M (+2.1% to +19.1%)



Profit margin (2010 and 2009): 97.50% to 64.14%



Q1 2011 earnings release is on May 4.



Non-GAAP EPS analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $0.18 to $0.50 (-63.2% to +2.0% vs. $0.49 in Q1 2010)



Revenues analyst estimates (Q1 2011): $179.4 M to $205.4 M (+5.7% to +21.1% vs. $169.585 M in Q1 2010)



WTI shares trade with a price to sales multiple of 2.3. From 2005 to 2007, the multiples were 3.3, 2.6, and 2.0, respectively.



Debt to equity ratio: 1.07



For 2011, the company gave guidance to sell between 83.2 and 96.7 Bcfe. In 2010, the company sold 87.0 Bcfe at an average realized sales price of $8.15 per Mcfe, compared to 94.8 Bcfe sold at an average price of $6.39 per Mcfe in 2009.



The current price to sales multiple is fair. We also believe that revenues will grow by 10% to $776.6 M, and place a price target of $24.25. So, there is only space to gain 1.75 points or 7.8%. This is a buy, but do not be thrilled.



The company is an independent oil and natural gas company focused primarily in the Gulf of Mexico, including exploration in the deepwater and deep shelf regions, where it has developed significant technical expertise. W&T has grown through acquisition, exploitation and exploration and holds working interests in approximately 67 fields in federal and state waters and a majority of its daily production is derived from wells it operates. View the latest company presentation on March 30 here.










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