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Friday, September 28, 2012

When does Facebook ( #FB ) have stock value ? FB

Does Facebook Deliver Value for the Advertiser?If Facebook has to worry about degrading the user experience with intrusive or excessive advertising, the company also has to worry about ad fatigue that leads users to simply ignore those ads. So it's all well and good to find new ways to charge companies for the ability to present their goods or services to users, but there has to be value for everybody.
J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth is a believer. In a report this morning in which he affirms his Overweight rating and $30 price target, Anmuth asserts that the outlook for mobile advertising on Facebook could be better than the Street is expecting.Amazon.com [AMZN 255.04 -1.55 (-0.6%) ] announced it is planning an online marketplace for wine sales. Meanwhile, Facebook [FB 21.67 1.35 (+6.64%) ] unveiled a new feature that would allow users to send "gifts" to their Facebook friends, sending
“Our analysis suggests that both mobile ad revenue per user and mobile ad revenue per time spent could be greater than that achieved on the desktop over time,” he writes. Anmuth expects the company’s mobile ad revenues to hit $921 million next year, up from $200 million and change this year.
Anmuth notes that sentiment on the stock has improved slightly, for several reasons. Zuckerberg’s announcement that he will not sell shares in the near-term helped, as did his upbeat recent appearance at the TechCrunch Disrupt conference. Meanwhile, he notes that we are creeping closer to both Q3 earnings and the big lock-up expirations in late-October and mid-November

To name one example, Facebook has recently decided to charge for promotional offers. While Facebook offers had been free, they will now carry a charge based in part on the size of the company's Facebook page (the number of customers it can address with those offers).

At a minimum, I would expect that this will force the companies in question to be more careful about tracking the returns on those offers - with free offers there was no risk, but now companies will have to evaluate the return on using the Facebook platform
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