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Monday, November 5, 2012

Jim Cramer says Obama will win the electoral college by a landslide ?

Jim Cramer raised some eyebrows this weekend, with a prediction that Obama will win the electoral college 440-98, a scenario that seems virtually impossible.
So why is Cramer so far outside of consensus?
He just explained it brilliantly on Twitter:
Basically, he's thinking of the call not as a pundit trying to get the number "right" but as a trader buying a super-deep out of the money call that could A) pay off quite a bit if remotely correct and B) Could instantly add scads to his fame.
Like all far-out-of-the-money call options, there's very little cost to this bet (being wrong won't end up costing Cramer squat in terms of his career), so he's being very smart and strategic, capturing upside in the event of a big blowout, while really risking very little
Whereas most folks see Obama just moderately getting over the 270 mark, he sees Obama winning 440 electoral votes, with 55% of the vote.

UPDATE: We were wondering what a 440 to 98 map would even look like.
National Journal's Jim Tankersely came up with one using CNN's interactive map.


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