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Friday, November 23, 2012

Wall Street to open on black friday higher in shorter session

"They keep telling you that it looks good but you have to be very careful when you look at housing data," Polcari warns in the attached video, adding that you can't compare what goes on in the northeast with what's happening in Miami or Las Vegas or Phoenix.Wall Street was poised for a fairly unspectacular return from Thanksgiving, with both Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.1 percent. Trading is expected to remain subdued especially as it's only a half day in U.S. markets. "Thanksgiving Thursday and Friday always means quieter markets and this year is no different," said Alastair McCaig, market analyst at IG. He concedes that housing is "turning around from the depths of the lows" and is "trying to find a bottom." Try telling him that the recent 10% increase in the national median price of a home is reflective of what's really happening in America, and you're apt to get both barrels! "Prices are up 10% from $80,000," he says of the badly beaten markets where three bedroom condos can still be had for $100,000. "I'm not saying the housing market isn't trying to find a bottom, in fact, I think for a lot of the country it is. But I don't live in the middle of Idaho, I live here." In a similar vein,Separately, ECB President Mario Draghi said confidence was returning to the euro zone, and governments must implement reforms to secure the bloc's future. "We're looking at a higher opening, there is some good news coming out of Europe," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York. "The fact that we're very close to sealing a deal for Greece certainly (helps) the risk-trade."The S&P 500 was poised to break a two-week losing streak, having gained more than 2 percent this week so far. Stocks had tumbled earlier in the month on worries about the impact of tax and spending changes to take effect from January, but hopes that politicians will reach a deal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff helped the market recoup some of those declines this week. Investors will likely focus on the retail sector as the holiday shopping season begins, looking for signs of how much consumers are spending as stores offer Black Friday deals and discounts. Shares of electronics retailer Best Buy Co (BBY) were up 1.6 percent at $11.75, while J C Penney (JCP) gained 2.4 percent to $17.67. Polcari's second mythical target takes aim at job growth, GDP and more generally, the commonly espoused theme that "the economy is picking up."Hopes that Greece will avoid an imminent bankruptcy have lain behind the euro's recent advance. That held Friday, with Europe's single currency up a further 0.2 percent at $1.2897. Earlier in Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.8 percent to 21,913.98 and South Korea's Kospi added 0.6 percent to 1,911.33. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. In the oil markets, benchmark oil for January delivery was down 13 cents to $87.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "I'm not trying to be a Grinch here, but again, I don't see it," he says, "especially in my own industry" where overall headcount in the banking and financial services business is down nearly 200,000 from the pre-recession peak. In fact, unlike those who are looking for continued slow and steady improvement in GDP, Polcari says, "as we move into the new year, I think there's going to be a recession in 2013."
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