Custom Search

Search Mad Money Fund Blog

Are You Buying Jim Cramer's Get Rich Carefully Book ?

Share Stock Picks

Saturday, June 8, 2013

Watch Top Stock Picks Fast Money, June 9, 2013 Buy Or Sell ? RT $MAR $GOOG $SRI $TSLA

in times square, i'm melissa lee. our traders are pete najarian, karen finerman and the biggest stories tonight and that is technology. it is the sector that has been gaining during the great rotation away from the yield payers over the past couple of months. but this might be a big red flag right now. according to bank of america, hedge funds are making their biggest bet on tech since 2000. this chart showing the speculative long positions in the nasdaq 100. so is this a sign you should be selling tech right now? let's turn to the traders here. guy adami, what do you say? i don't think so. obviously, i understand we're trying to make with the 2000 thing. that wound up being the top. but no, i don't think so. and what makes me even happier today is sort of a market agnostic is the fact we trade down to the 1620 level that we flagged last week, and we reversed rather strongly to 17 or 18 handles. that's very good. i think the next couple dives should be up days. i still think we have to get through that may 22nd level, that reversal from back then. but i think the markets technically has done everything right if you want to remain bullish. no, i don't think so that's a sign to get out of your technology. so friday could have been a bookmark day. friday was a bookmark day. today it did everything they needed to do. got to hold 1620. it did. look at the bounce. a couple of nice days in store for you. pete najarian, are you bullish on technology here? aim. i think there are multiple names you would want to be a part of your portfolio right now when you're looking around. i think some of those have already performed, but there is plenty of upside remaining. intel. intel has already had a great performance this year. but thing is a lot more in front of them. they are very much like best buy, where everybody said they were dead. they were dead because they were tied to the pc market. and now people are starting to understand that they're doing what everybody said they needed to start to get themselves into. and because of the cap ex, they've been able to buy back shares but get themselves into the mobile space extremely fast. why does it not bother you that hedge funds are piling into technology at this point? isn't that a red flag at all? it doesn't bother me at all. it doesn't bother you? it does not bother me. i look at the fundamentals right now of some of these areas. when you look at utilities, that didn't make as much sense, because fundamentally, they were in front of themselves when you look at the pe levels. microsoft, cisco, many of these names right now, these are not overbought names. it's very hard to say when it's overbought. right. because you're buying growth in that whole space. right. it's not the same as when you're looking at the utility space. when you say does it make you nervous? no, because you have a momentum trade on. that could push it a lot higher with strictly momentum. . that would make you nervous, i would think. how could it not make you nervous. that seems a little counterintuitive. it has been for the last couple of months. a lot of the shorts have been carried out, betting against momentum. so it's not karen's strategy. that's something that she would not invest. in but for people who are investing in the momentum trade, there is a lot more legs to it. until there is not. right. for me, the economic data has become more and more important. and today we had a very mixed bag. the vehicle sales were really good. so that was good. then we had the ism, which wasn't as good. so i think that, you know, where the market seems to like this perfect stagnation that we're in, you know, is good news bad news or i don't know, middle of the road, stagnation is maybe our best news. right. let's stick with technology here and talk about one of the big movers in today's session. that is microsoft spiking to a 5 1/2 year high on reports the company could be heading for a major restructuring. so is this a shake-up coming for microsoft? let's welcome back the head of tejano research at nomura. this is from an article that came out overnight today about this possible internal restructuring at microsoft. and you also wrote about a possible shake-up within the company. do these two stories marry up? they're two parallel developments i think. last fall, ballmer announced that he was going to move into devices and service. so that's what he is referring to at all things digital. and they have a conference going on this week. so tomorrow i think they'll announce a lot more of move of server and tools business to the cloud. you've seen office 365 moving to the cloud. they say it's a billion dollar business. it's a billion dollar run rate. and also azure server and tools products in the cloud approaching a little over a billion dollar run rate right now. now that's small. that's 5% of the business. but directionally, i think they're going to make some announcements to align internally and focus the business and the by model around cloud. we're seeing the same thing at oracle. we're seeing the same thing at sap. anyone focused on premise is in the wrong direction. they're going on on premise for a long time. but all the growth is coming from the cloud. microsoft is talking about how they position better for the cloud there is another reorganization, but there is another issue that is going on. and that's something that value act i think is going to bring to the forefront this summer as they ask for -- likely will ask for a board seat. they'll probably have to go through a proxy process which means it's going to become very public. i would think that's all good for the stock. they're going to be talking about how do you increase shareholder value. ballmer is going to try to convince investors, no we're already doing a lot of stuff. we're moving to the cloud. you were were on with mel and jim in the morning show a couple of years ago. you talked about microsoft going towards ese levels, here we are now. you mentioned a lot of the move we have seen is on the back of that. what when does that become commoditized if ever? that's a good question. their protester competition in the cloud is amazon. microsoft and amazon have cut prices against each other about 20 times already. that's a commoditizing business if you're just delivering compute capacity in the cloud as a service. so for microsoft, it's going to be important that they deliver higher end software as a service, not just the infrastructure and compute capacity as a system. i think that it's very unclear where we're headed. the business model implications are unclear. it's good in that you have to go there. that's where all the growth circumstances don't they run into google if they're offering that? is that really google's stronghold? it's more amazon, but google is in that business as well, yeah. you have to differentiate. fortunately, a lot of enterprises run microsoft to run outlook. they run sequel server database. so to the degree that that same infrastructure is offered to you in the cloud as you're already running, there is extra value assigned to it. so hopefully you can drive above average margins. just going back to the activism for a minute. the best defense against activism is stock price appreciation, which since vault act has taken their take stake have seen dramatically up day. if i sound bitter, it's because i am bitter. but given the insider ownership, gates ballmer together own or 9%. right. the stock has improved dramatically. how -- i think it's going to be difficult. how do you think they're going to be able to do that? and what does one seat get them? one seat gets you an inside voice so you can act more constructively with the independent directors to try to ct change. bill gates and steve ballmer collectively own just under 9% of the company. if you look at the next ten shareholders, it's 25% of the vote. you need 50% of the voting shares to win. and that would involve another 70 shareholders. so you raise a really good issue, which is historically, you probably wouldn't have that much and difficulty getting that many shareholders to vote in your favor. the better the stock done, ironically, the more it works against value act in getting all the shareholders to go along. but they haven't really gone public with their strategy in terms of how you enhance your shareholder value. so to the degree that it's already in the stock, by the time the shareholder vote comes up in november, you raise a good point, which is well, maybe there is not such a pressing need to effect change how much of all these possibilities in terms of realigning the business mobil, of value act getting a board seattle, how much of that is in the stock at this point? i think probably very low 30s on fundamentals. i think a lot of what we're seeing at 35 and change is the anticipation that something is likely to happen here to increase shareholder value. it sounds like it would be a sell now then. i think on fundamentals you find the stock pretty uninteresting right now. maybe stay around for the move to the cloud and the view that maybe windows 8.1 helps, and this chip from intel gives you longer battery life. but it's probably a tougher call at this price on ndamentals. so i think a lot of it from this point forward is going to have to come on increased shareholder value. so on a fundamental basis, if one were to rotate out of this stock, what should they within your universe rotate into? the capital spending environment is really challenged right now. business is still getting done. we just finished the may quarter for oracle and a few other companies. so we're eager over the next couple days to see how that went. but it's harder getting big deals done. but deals are still getting done. so my suspicion is oracle probably was okay for the quarter. sap is -- they have a really tough quarter. but it's interesting today. almost my entire screen of the momentum names, the sas names was down and down hard. the stocks that were up, microsoft, oracle, sap. the three big cap names that are maybe a little more defensive. i think we're seeing investors even though the fundamentals are still kind of dicey in the big cap names, it's probably safer as a place to be in urn oo uncertain times. thanks for coming by. great to see you. in terms of pete the options in some of these big cap names, do you see the momentum continuing? yes. we've seen nothing but people coming after these names, looking even higher, rick, when you're looking across the intels of the world, microsoft, oracle. you see people chasing some of the names. some of the names have underperformed, so you would think they may start to play catch-up. hewlett-packard we're seeing more and more. so in the big cap names to your point, the really big cap names, not necessarily the thrill a minute names, the apples of the world right now, we're seeing the big cap names really start to get a little more momentum to the upside. karen, in terms of your view on some of the big cap names, what would you look at? oracle, actually. as i said, it's priced very similarly to microsoft. but i think their cloud version is further along. before the break, some of the after hours movers. canadian pacific railways down 3% after news that the pershing square plans to sell to 7 million common shares, the sales will begin on or after june 10th. saic lowered extended trade. the company missing on the bottom line, but beat slightly on the top line revenues coming in at $2.7 billion versus the expected 2.6 billion. up next, a check on what was just last week america's new favorite car stock. could it now be the ultimate short? we are talking tesla straight ahead. plus, shares of best buy flying high. the second best performer in the s&p 500 has jumped over 130%. so why is one firm saying now is the time to buy and calling the stock a top pick in the space? we've got the analyst behind that call, and that t. stay tuned. it doesn't. that's crazy. we're all totally different. ishares core. etf building blocks for your personalized portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. people question: how old is the oldest person you've known? we gave people a sticker and had them show us. we learned a lot of us have known someone who's lived well into their 90s. and that's a great thing. but even though we're living longer, one thing that hasn't changed: the official retirement age. ♪♪ ♪♪ the question is how do you make sure you have the money you need to enjoy all of these years. ♪♪ ♪♪ today's top three trades, the most notable moves on the day. we kick it off with bristol-myers. a 52-week high in today's session, but it did get slapped with a sell rating. we'll delve deep were barbara ryan. but in the meantime, pete, give us your take. you have liked this stock for a long time. love this name and have loved it for a long time. goldman sachs has been one of the names that has been really on this. the stock was underneath $40 back then. it got all the way up and is pushing toward the $50 level. it did pull off today after that downgrade. but when you look at the name and you rook at what they were able to present, they are one of the folks oue that give a lot of data going into this meeting about what they have got in the pipeline that has been a story about pipeline and big pharma. that's where the growth is going to come. zynga getting whack on news of cost reductions. the cutbacks are expected to save the social gaming media company between 70 and $80 million. grasso? the stock price tells it all. if you look at the chart, it's been straight down. although what is the risk reward to shorting a stock that trades around $3 right now? not much. you don't want to be a short seller here. too much risk to the upside. i wouldn't be a buyer until it holds $5. and rounding out the top three touched a 52-week high. soda from 100 to 55. guy? the value, it sounds crazy. but 22 times forward earnings, it's not as ridiculous as you might think. this stock obviously there is a short interest there. people betting against it. while it's hard for me to get on board after a day like today. but there still appears to be some upside left in sodastream here. time to check in on one big box retailer that has seen pretty big gains. shares of best buy up nearly 134% this year alone. and it could be poised to move even higher. upgrading best buy. david mcgee, the analyst behind the report joins us on the fast line. david, it's always great to speak with you. thank you. good afternoon. in terms of this move, isn't it difficult to upgrade a stock that has already been up 134% year to date? you know, it's not ea upgrade a stock with this kind of move. but when you see the valuation, it's still not expensive and all the things this company is doing to become more relevant to the customers. we think it's got a major second leg ahead of it here. in terms of the valuation, you pointed out in your note the forward pe is still 11 times which is above the historical mid teen highs. i'm wondering whether it is a different environment for best buy with amazon and walmart in the fray. well, it's been, you know, to your point, a number of years since they got to the low to mid teens. but at the same time, you know, we went through a recession. they had gone through some critical competition with some of the online players. at this point, though, they get a chance to sort of regain their relevancy to customers and be best of breed in this space. we don't think it's unreasonable to expect low to mid teens again. it's karen. let me ask. i see you have a $35 target. what is the earnings and the multiples to get you there? that's looking out to 2015, karen, calendar 2015. and assuming this company can do around 28524 year and get some sort of a low teens multiple on that earnings space. that gets me to $35. david, embedded in this call, is it a bullish housing call? i'm sure you have to take that into consideration. it is. unately, we're not seeing much in terms of new tv technology this year. the product pipeline is still sort of soft. but at the same time, if housing continues to improve, that's going to pull along this sector as people upgrade tvs or add tvs when they buy new homes. that's a piece late this year into next year. thanks for joining us. appreciate your time. david magee of suntrust, the analyst who upgraded best buy in today's session. do you buy what david is selling, pete, in terms of having to return this notion that it will return to historical valuations to the mid teens? i do. today. you do? why? well, part of the problem for a while when we were also bearish on this company is they were doing absolutely nothing to defend themselves against the amazons of the world. i think they actually finally took that head on. they tried this price match. they got more involved on the online world to get more competitive. they have done everything we talked about. the one thing left is to shrink some of the stores down. they have so much retail space. but they have the samsung idea of coming within a store within a store. there are reasons to be very optimistic going forward 2014. would you be a buyer? i've always had a kind reflection on best buy. i always thought they could survive. i always thought you don't go in there just to use as a showroom because there are certain things you only want to buy there. you want to look at the tvs. you don't want to order them from amazon. you want to go, in you take a look and then you go to amazon. and then you feel bad. i don't feel bad. i feel like you want to talk to the gentleman that is going to be putting it in your house. even though they have the white glove service at amazon, i want to see the person that is actually going to be in the home with my four children. you go to best buy, you check everything out. i go whoever has the best value. tough girl. why is not? you go on amazon and ordering four service guys to come to your house for no reason, that's a problem. big movers of the section. a drop down 5%. this got a downgrade from morgan stanley. you talk about the forward product cycle not very exciting. i think that's starting to get priced into the stock. when you look at the forward valuations, i think it's time. it's had a very difficult first part. i think the second part is next stronger. guy? i'll take it. i mean another stock that just continues to defy logic here. all these -- petey talks about tj maxx, dollar tree. i wouldn't chase on the back of this, though. my little paper says that it's -- all right. drop for ebay down 1%, karen. 1% not that big a deal. i think there was an article calls for regulations after some paypal accounts were hacked. not a big deal. drop for pan door la, down 10%. steven grasso? hey, that's guy. every time it trades lower, the stock snaps back. but i will tell you. i feel like it's a little bit insurmountable at this point. way too much competition. i would rather be a buyer at google or apple based on that. and a pop here for 102-year-olds. an elderly idaho woman recently jumped at the opportunity to celebrate her 102nd birthday in high-flying fashion. dorothy celebrated by b.a.s.e. jumping off a 500 foot tall overpass in twin falls. the key to longevity is to never think about her age. she had no idea she was doing that, right? she is asking right now. where is my kite? all right. before we head to break, let's take a look at gm shares here being added to the s&p 500. you see that hop there, up by 4.4%. karen, this is a stock that you have been in, correct? i'm married to it. you're married to it. that's right. i am. so that's good. i wasn't expecting that right away, although it's not shocking. that was sort of on the radar out there. good numbers today, good sales. coming up next, we are checking the vital signs. why is it the best time in over a decade to buy into some of ese names? how one of the biggest names on the planet is inching closer and closer to a bear market? we're talk japan a little later on. fast money means trading. everybody's got to bring their best information each and every night. the entire trading day is the preparation for the show that night. it's idea generation. it's all about giving you a framework for how to look at the market. plus, the world has changed, our show has evolved. i am guy adami. i am fast money. i am pete najarian. i am fast money. are you fast money? go to the nbcuniversal store and order your fast money t. run with the big dogs. powerful screening tools, and guaranteed 1-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade, and etrade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. southern ♪ hooking up the country helping business run ♪ ♪ trains! ♪ they haul everything, safely and on time. ♪ tracks! ♪ they connect the factories built along the lines. and that means jobs, lots of people, making lots and lots of things. let's get your business rolling now, everybody sing. ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪ ♪ helping this big country move ahead as one ♪ ♪ norfolk southern how's that function? ♪♪♪ big pharma on the move in today's section. the american society of clinical oncology holding its meeting today. barbara ryan managing director of fti consulting joins us here on set. great to see you. great to see you, let's talk about bristol-myers. one of the biggest movers in the s&p 500. what do you make of how much is being baked into the stock for this new melanoma drug that really got it going? well, let me start with first of all they already have a new immunotherapy called yairvoy already on the market for malignant melanoma. these products are game changers. if you look at the way cancer has been treated in the past, it's really with cytotoxic agents that are by definition toxic to the cancer. now we're talking about products that actually propel your immune system to do what we would like to it do and fight cancer cells. and what is striking about these therapies is that they're fundamentally changing the way patients are treated, and they're having a very dramatic and sustained response. so we are seeing many patients live for long periods of time in cancers that have previously been very, very challenging like melanoma. what is also exciting is now we're looking at asco we saw bristol-myers pd-1, which is another immunotherapy agent combined and seeing better results. the view is not only are these going to work in melanoma, they're going to work in other tumor types whether it be lung cancer, kidney cancer, breast cancer, head and neck , and on and on. so it's applicable to others, which is the promising part of it. i want to bring to you the point that one analyst on the street has been making who has a sell rating in bristol-myers saying it's completely overvalued at this point. the data from phase 3 is not expected until 2016. and they're a huge part of the valuation based on this one drug in a very, very competitive space. what would you say to is that? that's three years away. obviously, the history of predicting both timing and the ultimate success of new products has been very channeling to say the least. so beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. at the enend of the day, it's about the net present value of the future sales of the products, and many are arguing, and i think it's perfectly appropriate at this time that this is going to be a 10, 15, potentially $20 billion category. and that's an annual sales. i think the other thing that is compelling about bristol-myers is that it is a company that really has transformed itself. it's gotten out of its non-core businesses verysuccessfully. it's become a biopharmany. and it's leveraged to the pipeline that it has. 20 billion in terms of melanoma specifically? no, no, sorry for that. for these immunotherapy agents in a variety of cancers. and, again, it's early days in the data in other cancers beyond lung cancer and beyond melanoma. but certainly that's the enthusiasm. and barbara, where would you stand on something like merck? because merck, when you look at the forward valuations right now trading a lot cheaper than bristol-myers. but they also have what looks to be a huge amount of work in the same area in melanoma that is going to multiple phase 1, phase 2, and the rest of it. if you have looking at the names works you almost prefer merck because of valuation over bristol? actually, it's a stock that have i talked about a bunch of advertisements on this air saying it's the most undervalued pharma stock, precisely for the reason if you look at merck right now, it trades at just about 14 times earnings, where as bristol-myers trades about 23 times earnings. big, big difference obviously in expectations. there is not as much leverage at bristol-myers to -- i mean at merck to the pipeline. and they may not have the dramatic portfolio that bristol has. but i think what investors have forgotten in this space, and i've covered the space for over 30 years, you know, drug companies too develop new drugs. and it's been about ten years. so i think what we're seeing now is a peripheral -- there is a portfolio of products that these companies are bringing to the market. and people are just discovering, wow, pharma companies can have pipelines, not just biotech stocks. and what is moving out of asco? not biotech for the most part. you have one or two names. but broadly speaking, pharma. and i think that, you know, we are seeing the early signs of an improving return in r & d. and i think valuations for the sector can go meaningfully higher. you think there can be a successful transition. at one point these stocks were looked at safety, dividend pairs, great yields there is a transition that will be made into recognizing the stocks for pipelines that they have. i think that's what is happening. because the data out at merck probably didn't drive the dramatic stock price performances. the perception that is changing and the rerating of these stocks. right. and now we've got high yielding bonds with equity kickers. and that makes the group a lot more attractive i think than it's been for quite some time. bash remarks thanks for stopping by. barbara ryan of fti. let's take a check on pfizer shares, up more than 10% so far this year. options traders making bullish checks out there. brian an, what did you see today? a lot of option activity going on, pfizer trading at about two times average daily volume. we saw one trade goer out and sell in december 26 puts. about 5,000 hit the market in one big sweep. we saw about 10,000 trade on the day, midday. selling for that for about $126. traders are willing to get along fiez fer you see pfizer tick down below $26. they're selling insurance, a put. they would be willing to buy down at the $26 level with the break even below 25. certainly support. good big rotation going around. people trading into some of these big pharma names. well heard barbara mention about merck, trading 14 times. pfizer trades at 13 times. they want to get into the game and at least selling some premium here to do that. thank you. you can catch more options action 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up next, we're getting a leg up at the open witp trades for tomorrow. plus, the hottest trades on the planet keep losing steam here. the japan sell-off intensifying today, and fears for deeper losses keep on mounting. a look at how much lower we could go. that's next. ♪♪ ♪♪ more rain... ♪♪ ♪♪ when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪♪ ♪♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. ♪♪ ♪♪ i've found software that intrigues me. it appears it's an agent of good. ♪♪ ♪♪ ge software connecttients to nurses to the right machines while dramatically reducing waiting time. now a waiting room is just a room. welcome back to fast money. we're live at the nasdaq market site. a very rainy, dreary times square. time to talk hotel stocks. the 35th annual nyu international hospitality industry investment conference under way right now in new york city. simon hobbs joins us with a special guest. high, simon. indeed, melissa, welcome to the nyu conference. we're just on the other side times square from you at of course the marriott marquee. joining me, the big guns are coming in now. it's the ceo of marriott, arnie sorenson. great to have you here. are you getting less concerned about the sequester? when the i spoke to you last time, you were very concerned on the impact it could have on the d.c. area, and that affected your projection for the full year. the pressure off? i think the pressure is not gone, but i think the first few months have been comforting. so we worry that the sequester would have sort of an immediate impact on government spending, and maybe corporate confidence. i think what the first two months of the sequester has told us is that the economic recovery is strong enough and broad enough that it's overcoming the weakness, at least at the moment. i assume that means you're tracking above the mid point of the range. would that be fair? i'm not going took about our guidance numbers right now. let me ask you about your space for buybacks there is a debate where your stock could go on that basis. some say $2 billion over the next couple years, 13% of your outstanding shares. others say well maybe $3 billion with asset sales. what are you able to tell us? well, what we've talked about so far is about a billion dollars this year we think will return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. that's about 80/20 in favor of share repurchases. our dividends are a couple hundred million a year. right. last year we did well over a billion dollars of share repurchases. we produce a billion dollars or so growing of cash flow every year. we're committed to returning whatever we don't invest in our business to our shareholders. that means a billion dollars or more growing every year. as far as the eye can seattle. is the power shifting in the industry? blackstone with a 40, $50 billion ipo of hilton still to come appears to have allowed one major hotel now in new york to drop room service. are you going to be doing that as well for your brands? will you drop room service as a requirement? and what will that mean for investors, for marriott investor and also for owners? for you or for anybody else who wants to check in and have room service available, come to the marriott marquee. so you will maintain. and how many of your hotels does room service actually run at a loss? oh, it's hard to make money on room service. run at a loss? undoubtedly that's why hilton has made the decision they've made. now to be fair, people do prefer more casual eating today. probably more gourmet e today. we are at a more casual society than we've ever been so we don't see quite the share of volume in room service we've seen in the past. but we see on a night where there ask inclement weather, late check-ins, people don't want to go out to eat because of the weather, we'll do hundreds of covers in this hotel in the marriott marquee for room service in the evenin and that's something that full service customers expect to have available to them when they need it. i don't know. hundreds of meals in a hotel this size doesn't sound a lot to me. but thank you. oh, you bet. i'll let you go and meet your owners. arnie sorenson, the ceo of marriott. one of the many big players at this lodging conference on the other side of times square, to you, melissa. stay dry, simon. it's like a monsoon through. good to see you. simon hobbs. all right. so let's trade this thing karen, where do you stand on the hotel space? i like hertz, actually, the best of all. i think i love that dollar thrifty acquisition for them. marriott is not bad. what do you normally order when you order room service? french onion soup, and a bottle of dom. it depends on who i'm with. maybe you want to find out. oh! let's move on here. time now for our top three trades for tuesday. traders around the world are watching japan as the hottest trade on the planet continues to cool off in recent weeks. let's send it over to get the look at how the session in asia is shaping up so far this morning. sri? hello, melissa. i think we're in for another rough day. expect morselling on the nikkei. that's what the futures market is certainly telling us. so at the market close, the official market close yesterday in tokyo, the futures were off by 2%. so if we do see more selling, that's going to be quite serious for the markets. that will bring us in striking distance of bad market territory. that's quite a swift reversal of fortunes for a market, remember, that has been up. at one point this year on a year to database sis by more than 50%. remember that the weakness in the japanese currency has been a big, big driver of this positive sentiment. that is now starting to turn. dollar/yen has cracked below 100 support level. so watch out. the exporters today. finally, positioning in the market broadly gives you a pretty good clue what is going to happen next. this extraordinary rally on the nikkei has been fueled by foreign money. investors have plowed almost 3.8 trillion yen. those overweight in speculative positions are now being unwound that process is going to continue and bring more pressure to bear on the market. here is the real kicker, melissa. very quickly before i go, domestic cash investors have been net sellers. so that's suggests they don't have much faith in this grand policy experiment. we really need that buy-in from domestic investors, unless the rally, if we don't see that, the rally will stall. back to you. now. all right, sri, thanks for that. steven p. grasso, in terms of traders on the floor tomorrow morning, how much does japan impact how you perceive what the u.s. session is going to be doing? i think it's a huge impact. but you also have to realization is the biggest impact is the chairman, ben bernanke. we want to know, a, what he is going to do when you see the way the market traded on the lows today when there were all sorts of rumors back and forth. but this week everything is focused on the johns hopkins jobs nchlts. stock has been surging up 22%. karen, where is dg? it surged 22%, as you dramatically said. it's still not so expensive. of all the quarters, this is the
Post a Comment