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Thursday, January 1, 2009

9 ( Nine ) For 09 , Risky Stock Picks ( 2009 )

1. Midas ( MDS ) 10.49 a share As of 1/1/2009
Midas, Inc. is a provider of automotive repair and maintenance services with over 2,550 shops globally. Midas retail shops, which are operated by the Company, its franchisees and licensees, offer an array of automotive repair and maintenance services. As of December 29, 2007, there were 1,711 North American Midas shops located in all 50 United States and nine Canadian provinces. Midas operates in a single business segment with retail, supply chain and real estate operations in support of automotive service shops. Retail operations consist of franchised and Company-operated shops in North America and licensed shops in 15 other countries. Supply chain activities include providing value-added merchandising services to franchisees, in which the Company establishes relationships with vendors who distribute products and equipment directly to Midas shops. Real estate activities include the development, ownership and leasing of Midas shops in North America. With nobody buying new cars people need to repair there older cars & in the USA we will find ways on paying to repair our cars ! Midas is a reliable company w/ low dept , this could be a winner for 2009 ! target price 20.00 a share.

2. Clean Energy Fuels ( CLNE ) 6.01 a share as of 1/1/2009
Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (Clean Energy) is a provider of natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicle fleets in the United States and Canada. The Company offers a solution to enable customers to run their fleets on natural gas. It designs, builds, finances and operates fueling stations, and supplies customers with compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Company also helps them acquire and finance natural gas vehicles, and obtain local, state and federal clean air rebates and incentives. The Company serves fleet vehicle operators in a variety of markets, including public transit, refuse hauling, airports, taxis, seaports, and regional trucking. It generates revenues primarily by selling CNG and LNG, and to an extent by building, operating and maintaining CNG and LNG fueling stations.CLNE is the largest supplier of CNG for automotive fuel in the U.S.. When the price of gasoline doubles again next year, CLNE will be poised to pick up the renewed interest in alternative fuels. Recently, it has been awarded several government contracts to keep it healthy until consumer interest picks up again.Largest supplier of natural gas stations. As the country shifts to natural gas for its autos(and it will) this company will be in the forefront to set up service stations across the country. T.Boone Pickens a large stockholder. Target price 21.00 a share .

3. Citigroup ( C ) 6.71 A Share As Of 1/1/2009
Citigroup Inc. (Citigroup) is a diversified global financial services holding company whose businesses provide a range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. Citigroup is a bank holding company. As of March 31, 2008, Citigroup was organized into four major segments: Consumer Banking, Global Cards, Institutional Clients Group and Global Wealth Management. In March 2008, Citigroup reorganized its consumer group into two global businesses: Consumer Banking and Global Cards. In May 2008, the Company has reorganized its equity and debt business in Japan. Nikko Citigroup Ltd, the Company’s Japan investment banking unit, merged its equity and debt underwriting teams into one.CIti is one of those "can't fail" companies. When financials get their act together Citi should be a better than average performer.While it has written down nearly 30 Billion in assets, these assets are not worthless. Additionally, these write-downs are non-cash balance sheet charges, not cash outflows. The recapitalization due to the non-cash losses is a tiny fraction of the overall write downs. Citi is, was, and will be one of the largest players in international finance and banking. Once the fair value of these assets is determined, and the financial markets stabilize, I believe Citi will return to EPS in the $3.40 to $4.10 range. Remember, the $1.05 dollar first-quarter loss included a whopping 12 Billion in write-downs. Without those items, that Citi made $1.24/share. My point is, the core-business of Citi makes sense. These banks are not going anywhere. They made some mistakes, and lost some money, but no one can convince me that Citigroup is worth less than it was in 1998. Eventually the market will figure that out. If you pass on CIti at these prices, you are missing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy a great company at a great price. This stock will greatly outperform the market over the next 3-5 years. Target price 9.75 a share.

4. United States Oil Fund ETF ( USO )32.85 A share as of 1/1/2009
United States Oil Fund, LP (USOF) is a commodity pool that issues limited partnership interests or units that may be purchased and sold on the American Stock Exchange (the AMEX). The Company invests in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil and other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), International Currency Exchange (ICE) Futures or other United States and foreign exchanges (collectively, Oil Futures Contracts). It holds interests in other oil-related investments such as cash-settled options on Oil Futures Contracts, forward oil contracts, and oil-based over-the-counter transactions.Oil is waaaay down, but only due to overall weakness in the markets. It will come back in a big way, and now is the time to get in to anything that is even remotely related to the oil markets.
This is just a reality. The thought that oil will forever fall is just not sound thinking. As conditions improve and people hoard the oil, prices will rise and this ETF will again ride higher. It will not be until the late summer or fall of 2009 but it will occur. The same way we are amazed at the massive oil price drop we will all sit around and discuss how that one _____ (hurricane, war, terrorist act) tripled oil in a months time. The wonderful part of old age is you slowly realize the waves that pound the beach are rather predictable. Anyway I have bought oil and plan to continue. Target price 70.75 a share.

5., Inc. ( BIDU ) 129.90 a share as of 1/1/2009, Inc. (Bidu) is a Chinese-language Internet search provider. The Company conducts its operations principally through Baidu Online Network Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. (Baidu Online), its wholly owned subsidiary in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China. In addition, it conducts part of its operations through Baidu Netcom Science Technology Co., Ltd. (Baidu Netcom), which holds the licenses and approvals necessary to operate Baidu’s Websites and provide online advertising services.Google US market share 60%
Baidu China market share 60%
US Population 300M
Chinese Population 1B+
Google market value 150B
Baidu Market value 10B
Chinese version of Google. Huge under-tapped market. Strong ownership interest. Recommended by Fools. Internet is here to stay and just getting started in China.Target price 225.00 a share.

6. Toll Brothers ( TOL ) 21.43 a share as of 1/1/2009
Toll Brothers, Inc. is engaged in designing, building, marketing and arranging finance for single-family detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities. The Company is also involved, directly and through joint ventures, in projects where it is building, or converting existing rental apartment buildings into high-, mid- and low-rise luxury homes. During the fiscal year ended October 31, 2007 (fiscal 2007), the Company delivered 7,023 homes from 385 communities. In fiscal 2007, the Company has introduced 70 new single-family detached models, 28 new single-family attached models and 32 new condominium units. The four segments operated by the Company includes the North, the Mid-Atlantic, the South and the West.
With the Fed throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the housing problem they will create and artificial bottom in housing prices. Once all the buyers that have been waiting for a bottom will have already missed the bottom and have to pay 1% to 3% more than they originally wanted. And one more thing beware of the crowded short. Also Jim Cramer thinks housing should bottom by mid year in 2009 . How can you not love such a honest CEO as Toll Brothers. I love how candid and open this man is to the little investors. Crammer has interviewed this "gentleman" and I love his straight shooting and talking style. I belive that Toll Brothers is a great place to park your money for some substantial time , long term play !target price 35.00 a share.

7. Suburban Propane Partners ( SPH ) 35.45 a share as of 1/1/2009
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. is a marketer and distributor of an array of products, which meet the energy needs of its customers. The Company specializes in the distribution of propane, fuel oil and refined fuels, as well as the marketing of natural gas and electricity in deregulated markets. The Company conducts its business through Suburban Propane, L.P., which operates its propane business, and its direct and indirect subsidiaries. The Company’s general partner, and the general partner of Suburban Propane, L.P., is Suburban Energy Services Group LLC. The Company manages and evaluates its operations in six segments, four of which are reportable segments: propane, fuel oil and refined fuels, natural gas and electricity and Services. Jim Cramer states ,Brrrr! Many of us are enduring some downright frigid temperatures lately. So while you're sitting at home, staying out of the snow and wind, I'm sure the one question on your mind is, 'How can I make money off this arctic-like weather?' Cramer, as always, is here to help you with that dilemma. And his answer is one that many of you faithful viewers have been on to for a while: Suburban Propane Partners [SPH 35.45 1.05 (+3.05%) ]. After so many of you talked this one up, Cramer did his homework. And the result? He's feeling the warmth too.
Suburban is an energy outfit that delivers propane and other fuels to over a million customers.Another reason propane is doing so well now is its wide profit margin. The wholesale price of heating oil is down 43% but the propane companies haven't passed those savings to their customers -- the retail price is down only 33%. I know, I know... the consumer part of you is outraged, as you think about your winter heating bill. But the investor side of you -- well that side should be pretty happy with that nice, fat profit margin. And don't forget we're only at the end of December, with at least two more months of Old Man Winter ahead. That puts Suburban in a good spot for now.

Finally, look at Suburban's dividends, "the main reason to own this stock." Its expected 2009 payout is $3.34 per share -- the aforementioned 10.7% yield. The company has had 10 consecutive increases in quarterly dividend payouts. With over $4M in cash flow expected next year, it will cover that payout handily. Its balance sheet looks great too: $4 per share and a $175M credit facility. All of that means that even in a worst-case scenario with its business falling apart, "it has the balance sheet to keep supporting it."
Cramer's Bottom Line: "You asked, I answered -- Suburban Propane Partners, with that 10.7% yield, is a buy, buy, buy!" Target price 55.00 a share.

8. Genentech ( DNA ) 82.91 a share as of 1/1/2009
Genentech, Inc. (Genentech) is a biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures and commercializes pharmaceutical products to treat patients with unmet medical needs. It commercializes multiple biotechnology products and also receives royalties from companies that are licensed to market products based on the Company’s technology. Genentech commercializes various products in the United States, including Avastin, Rituxan, Herceptin, Lucentis, Xolair, Tarceva, Nutropin, Activase, TNKase, Cathflo Activase, Pulmozyme and Raptiva.11B in cash and accumulating. Flat for several years waiting for earnings to catch up to valuation. Great depth in mgmt, research. Best in class products.Safe harbor and a risky stock that can make u mad money. target price 100.00 a share.

9. DENTSPLY International ( XRAY ) 28.24 a share as of 1/1/2009
DENTSPLY International Inc. (DENTSPLY) is a designer, developer, manufacturer and marketer of a range of products for the dental market. The Company’s principal dental product categories are dental consumables, dental laboratory products and dental specialty products. Sales of DENTSPLY’s dental products accounted for approximately 97% of its net sales, excluding precious metal content, during the year ended December 31, 2007. The remaining 3% of consolidated sales are related to materials sold to the investment casting industry and various medical products. As of December 31, 2007, the Company conducted its business through four operating segments, all of which were primarily engaged in the design, manufacture and distribution of dental products in three principal categories: dental consumables, dental laboratory products and dental specialty products. DENTSPLY conducts its business in over 120 foreign countries, principally through its foreign subsidiaries.
Dentsply earnings can grow 10 % in 2009 . also they have $ 240 million in cash .There's a whole swath of boomers that are going to be needing dental work soon.It helps to have worked as a dental assistant. Dentsply products include xray holders that are easy on the mouth, protective aprons that are more comfortable, a new night guard that can be created in the office rather than cast and sent to a lab, dental tools that help sense hidden caries (cavities) in back molars, and even a toothpast that will help with tooth sensitivity. Most of these are the same kind of everyday, constant use dental products that will be constantly re-ordered by every dentist. The company is a good one with good reputation. This should be a Procter and Gamble of the dental community.Looks like a good company. I'm trying to get a few medical/pharmaceutical companies in antipication of the Obama election. Target price 48.00 a share .


I hope u all like my top 9 for 09 , risky stock picks ! What are your thoughts ??
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